Husband | Neuroscientist | Teacher | Dog Dad | Ran for Congress | he/him 
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Hey folks, our national polling average is now Biden +9.2, as compared with Biden +9.7 yesterday. What caused the change given that the national tracking polls were decent for Biden this AM? It's older polls dropping out of the average. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ …pic.twitter.com/13oHKIpiEo
The average may have dropped slightly for Biden, but it also looks like the variance went down as well, meaning less error in the prediction.
Because there's less and less time for things to change before election day. Variance is running out of time.
10 days out till Election Day, things can still change in that time period
Then again, this could also suggest some degree of herding going on, which would not be ideal for accuracy
Is there a time variable in the estimation of variance? I can’t remember, that’s why I get my options advice on wallstreetbets lol
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