Nobody knows who the hell is gonna win the election, and if they say they're 93.8% sure, don't believe them.https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1224157228233625600 …
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In the case of elections. . .I have always wondered, what would be an example of using these models correctly? How can they be of value for voters and democracy in general?
That’s a fair question. For elections, I’m not sure there is a correct way of using them. Outside of elections, there is value. I have used them in healthcare and foster care to improve the system.
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My problem with them is that when they predict "correctly" they seem to claim victory as if they are so precise and not probabilistic, but when they do not then everyone else does not understand probability. I just feel that they mislead with their language & endless publications
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I remember 2 things in probability: aleatory and epistemic uncertainity. The latter is why I take 538 as just entertainment especially when it comes to elections. I see nothing of value in their predictions. Maybe even negative value for voters who take their numbers as-is
End of conversation
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