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Biggan4Congress's profile
Dr. John Biggan
Dr. John Biggan
Dr. John Biggan
Verified account
@Biggan4Congress

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Dr. John BigganVerified account

@Biggan4Congress

Husband | Neuroscientist | Teacher | Dog Dad | Ran for Congress | he/him 🧠 👨‍🔬

Hurst, TX
Joined January 2018

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    1. Ezra Levin‏Verified account @ezralevin Feb 2

      Ezra Levin Retweeted FiveThirtyEight

      Nobody knows who the hell is gonna win the election, and if they say they're 93.8% sure, don't believe them.https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1224157228233625600 …

      Ezra Levin added,

      FiveThirtyEightVerified account @FiveThirtyEight
      The Niners have a 93.8% chance to win. Mahomes will need magic. #SuperBowl https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-bowl-2020-chiefs-49ers-live/254522/ …
      47 replies 401 retweets 2,609 likes
    2. Elizabeth‏ @ImaQzak Feb 2
      Replying to @ezralevin @Biggan4Congress

      If a model says 93.8%, believe it. Just don't act like it's 100%. 93.8% isn't 100%

      2 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
    3. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick Feb 2
      Replying to @ImaQzak @ezralevin @Biggan4Congress

      Don't believe it, because the model probability is not a measuring what it claims to measure.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick Feb 2
      Replying to @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak and

      The model isn't giving a probability of this team winning now. It's giving the fraction of times past teams would have won in similar situations, given the parameters used.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick Feb 2
      Replying to @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak and

      That is, it's more a historical comparison than a prediction.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Ezra Levin‏Verified account @ezralevin Feb 2
      Replying to @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak @Biggan4Congress

      It's presented as a prediction - and a high probability prediction at that. A hard precise number for the "chance to win" with a fancy-sounding model behind it, and a conclusion that the other team will "need magic" to win. If that's not a prediction, what is it?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Dr. John Biggan‏Verified account @Biggan4Congress Feb 2
      Replying to @ezralevin @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak

      The problem with models like this are that they are so easily misunderstood. Most people assume that a prediction like this makes it a sure thing. Like Nick said, this is essentially saying that, assuming everything works the way it has in the past, 93.8% of the time the 49rs win

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. Dr. John Biggan‏Verified account @Biggan4Congress Feb 2
      Replying to @Biggan4Congress @ezralevin and

      Unfortunately, most people think that means it’s a sure thing instead of just fairly probable. They also might miss that assumption that things will work the way they have in the past. In the age of Trump, we should never assume that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. Ezra Levin‏Verified account @ezralevin Feb 2
      Replying to @Biggan4Congress @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak

      Things are so chaotic and so of course folks want certainty. When you have big statisticians giving you a percentage with a decimal point in it, it feels real - and that feels good. But the scary reality is that we're in dark uncharted waters right now.

      1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
      Dr. John Biggan‏Verified account @Biggan4Congress Feb 2
      Replying to @ezralevin @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak

      Well said.

      8:03 PM - 2 Feb 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Tristan Brown‏ @BrownTristanh Feb 2
          Replying to @Biggan4Congress @ezralevin and

          By all means, question the model but to say that all models are irrelevant because some models were unable to predict the future isn’t helpful. 538 was actually quite good in the 2016 and 2018 elections and I’d be happy to put money on them again.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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