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Biggan4Congress's profile
Dr. John Biggan
Dr. John Biggan
Dr. John Biggan
Verified account
@Biggan4Congress

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Dr. John BigganVerified account

@Biggan4Congress

Husband | Neuroscientist | Teacher | Dog Dad | Ran for Congress | he/him 🧠 👨‍🔬

Hurst, TX
Joined January 2018

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    1. Ezra Levin‏Verified account @ezralevin Feb 2

      Ezra Levin Retweeted FiveThirtyEight

      Nobody knows who the hell is gonna win the election, and if they say they're 93.8% sure, don't believe them.https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1224157228233625600 …

      Ezra Levin added,

      FiveThirtyEightVerified account @FiveThirtyEight
      The Niners have a 93.8% chance to win. Mahomes will need magic. #SuperBowl https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-bowl-2020-chiefs-49ers-live/254522/ …
      47 replies 401 retweets 2,609 likes
    2. Elizabeth‏ @ImaQzak Feb 2
      Replying to @ezralevin @Biggan4Congress

      If a model says 93.8%, believe it. Just don't act like it's 100%. 93.8% isn't 100%

      2 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
    3. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick Feb 2
      Replying to @ImaQzak @ezralevin @Biggan4Congress

      Don't believe it, because the model probability is not a measuring what it claims to measure.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick Feb 2
      Replying to @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak and

      The model isn't giving a probability of this team winning now. It's giving the fraction of times past teams would have won in similar situations, given the parameters used.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick Feb 2
      Replying to @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak and

      That is, it's more a historical comparison than a prediction.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Ezra Levin‏Verified account @ezralevin Feb 2
      Replying to @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak @Biggan4Congress

      It's presented as a prediction - and a high probability prediction at that. A hard precise number for the "chance to win" with a fancy-sounding model behind it, and a conclusion that the other team will "need magic" to win. If that's not a prediction, what is it?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Dr. John Biggan‏Verified account @Biggan4Congress Feb 2
      Replying to @ezralevin @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak

      The problem with models like this are that they are so easily misunderstood. Most people assume that a prediction like this makes it a sure thing. Like Nick said, this is essentially saying that, assuming everything works the way it has in the past, 93.8% of the time the 49rs win

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. Ezra Levin‏Verified account @ezralevin Feb 2
      Replying to @Biggan4Congress @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak

      I mean, agree they're misunderstood, and I also think outfits like 538 have an interest in presenting themselves as soothsayers. The reason these estimates get as much play as they do is BECAUSE they're misunderstood.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      Dr. John Biggan‏Verified account @Biggan4Congress Feb 2
      Replying to @ezralevin @BioTurboNick @ImaQzak

      Agreed for the most part. 538 was one of the better outfits and @NateSilver538 was pretty good about reminding people that Trump had about a 1 in 3 chance of winning. A lot of people disregarded that. BTW, I say this as someone who hates polls.

      7:59 PM - 2 Feb 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Jeremy DemLibs
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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