Nobody knows who the hell is gonna win the election, and if they say they're 93.8% sure, don't believe them.https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1224157228233625600 …
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The problem with models like this are that they are so easily misunderstood. Most people assume that a prediction like this makes it a sure thing. Like Nick said, this is essentially saying that, assuming everything works the way it has in the past, 93.8% of the time the 49rs win
Unfortunately, most people think that means it’s a sure thing instead of just fairly probable. They also might miss that assumption that things will work the way they have in the past. In the age of Trump, we should never assume that.
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Things are so chaotic and so of course folks want certainty. When you have big statisticians giving you a percentage with a decimal point in it, it feels real - and that feels good. But the scary reality is that we're in dark uncharted waters right now.
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