Nobody knows who the hell is gonna win the election, and if they say they're 93.8% sure, don't believe them.https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1224157228233625600 …
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It's presented as a prediction - and a high probability prediction at that. A hard precise number for the "chance to win" with a fancy-sounding model behind it, and a conclusion that the other team will "need magic" to win. If that's not a prediction, what is it?
The problem with models like this are that they are so easily misunderstood. Most people assume that a prediction like this makes it a sure thing. Like Nick said, this is essentially saying that, assuming everything works the way it has in the past, 93.8% of the time the 49rs win
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Unfortunately, most people think that means it’s a sure thing instead of just fairly probable. They also might miss that assumption that things will work the way they have in the past. In the age of Trump, we should never assume that.
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Things are so chaotic and so of course folks want certainty. When you have big statisticians giving you a percentage with a decimal point in it, it feels real - and that feels good. But the scary reality is that we're in dark uncharted waters right now.
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I mean, agree they're misunderstood, and I also think outfits like 538 have an interest in presenting themselves as soothsayers. The reason these estimates get as much play as they do is BECAUSE they're misunderstood.
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Agreed for the most part. 538 was one of the better outfits and
@NateSilver538 was pretty good about reminding people that Trump had about a 1 in 3 chance of winning. A lot of people disregarded that. BTW, I say this as someone who hates polls.
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The best and easiest assumption is that not everything will work like it has worked in the past which makes all these predictions no better than witchcraft.
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If they’re used correctly they have some value, but the way they typically get used, especially by the media and pundits, can make them harmful.
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