1. Today my timeline is filled with stories about whether OPEC+ will comply with the new quotas. Here is why it is immaterial and OPEC+ have created enough smoke and mirrors to have the market looking the wrong way.
#OOTT
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2. OPEC+ have a problem and that is basically 1H20 primarily 1Q20. They need to prevent prices from falling. So their position is to make added cuts until the end of March 2020 to pass the low demand period. All good so far.
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3. But they are playing on the fact that there are massive timing differences to how the physical oil market works. They are playing on 2 things A) the compliance data will come out after 31st January B) crude programs will be trading much further in the future than 31st March
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4. Looking at point B first. Currently the oil programs that are trading for January (apart from Urals). In fact WAF will start trading February this week. So is there any real reason for people to get their knickers in a twist?
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5. This means the following for arrivals of Crudes to Asia the most important market WAF - February to April NWE - February to April MED - February to April ME - January to March
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6. Add in another month before it is processed due to unloading, pipeline transport etc. WAF - March to May NWE - March to May MED - March to May ME - March to May What does this show? Buying is already virtually over for the cuts to have any effect in the 1Q.
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7. Now if we take into account point A Compliance data will come out in April or May. If it is May then the market will be trading the following programs WAF -July NWE- June MED- June ME- June
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8. This means crude being processed by the refiners in Asia WAF - September to October NWE - September to October MED - September to October ME - August to September Is there really any point talking about compliance from March?
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9. 1Q Crudes for refiners in Asia have mainly traded now. To see if oversupply is a problem in 1Q it is now that the market should look and it looks tight. Diffs are strong and backwardation is strong. Now is when crude is mainly bought for refiners in Q1 not in February or March
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10. Instead in April and May stories will come out regarding compliance that are really not worth the paper they are written on. Because the market has way passed that demand period. It means that analysts are not looking at what is happening now and wait for compliance numbers
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