Big_Orrin

@Big_Orrin

Energy Market Analyst, LFC fan. My own Views

Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2012.

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  1. prije 12 sati

    The philosopher's stone found in Singapore. The Alchemy of IMO: add 1 barrel of ULSD and 1 barrel of cheap HSFO and produce 2 barrels of the more expensive VLSFO. Nicolas Flamel would be proud.

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  2. prije 12 sati

    EIA forecast from API Crude +1.2mb Cushing +1.6mb Distillate -0.7mb Gasoline -1.0mb

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  3. prije 19 sati

    Today, if US crude export are below 3.5mbpd will hear lots of blame on Coronavirus/Asia run cuts etc. But, these exports were bought weeks ago before the virus was news. Takes time to get boats into place, etc. This is not Amazon where you receive the crude the next day

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  4. 4. velj

    7. cancelling cargoes are virtually impossible to do once you have an agreement. Therefore even the closest loading cargoes at ESPO will be more or less impossible to resell because who do you resell it to? All other refiners have already bought their crude oil.

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  5. 4. velj

    6. Therefore, we won’t see anything of falling crude demand from China until potentially end of March into April and May. Timing of a trade in the physical market has everything to do with what will happen.

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  6. 4. velj

    5. China bought these cargoes when crude price was much higher. Price paid is determined usually by the average of the pricing a few days after the Bill of Lading. For them to sell any cargoes on the water now would certainly be a huge loss of money.

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  7. 4. velj

    4. Chinese crude imports always fall at this time of year because of the Lunar New Year holiday. But even if the ports have been closed by the Coronavirus, the boats will just be delayed in their discharge. They will sit outside.

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  8. 4. velj

    3. Cargoes arriving now in Chinese ports have been on the water for 4-6 weeks. They were loaded before the Coronavirus panic even had started. They were bought even earlier than that in October. Ship tracking now won’t tell you anything about crude demand.

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  9. 4. velj

    2. What have we seen so far from China. 5mb of crude up for resale or 166kbpd over a month. And that is crude that won’t be processed until May or even June.

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  10. 4. velj

    1. According to Bloomberg oil demand in China to drop 3mbpd. That is 90 1mb cargoes or 45 VLCCs a month the Chinese have to cancel or re-sell to balance their supply/demand.

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  11. 4. velj

    Refiners can make more money now blending ULSD with HSFO, VGO, LCO etc. than selling ULSD on its own. More VLSFO to the market but lower viscosity. Therefore, diesel demand is probably stronger than market believes as this demand not accounted for in diesel demand numbers.

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  12. 4. velj

    Cannot tell if this is Britain 1978 or Britain 2020.

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  13. 4. velj

    What is the easiest way for UNIPEC and China to pay less for cargoes loading at the moment? One way would be to indicate you are considering to re-sell future cargoes. Would potentially spook the futures market. Will be interesting to see if they actually sell them.

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  14. 3. velj

    Remember, last time that Bloomberg had such an exclusive they dumped the market when they said that Saudi Arabia were fed up of the cheaters and were going to punish them. That was miles wrong. Once bitten, twice shy

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  15. 1. velj

    Time for Scotland to be independent. It will be the only positive thing to come out of Brexit.

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  16. 30. sij

    Intereview with British Guy in Wuhan that caught the Coronavirus on the 5th of December (one of the first). Says for most people it is very much like having the flu. Fully recovered. he was hit a bit harder as he had pre-existing cough.

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  17. 29. sij

    EIA forecasts using API Convergence Crude +0.6mb Cushing +1.3mb Distillate -0.2mb Gasoline -1.7mb

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  18. 28. sij

    This is when you actually love Michael O'Leary for his straight talking.

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  19. 27. sij

    Hearing in China lots of people driving their cars instead of using public transport. Same in many other Asian cities. Flights to China have only seen a small reduction in passengers. So maybe not as much demand destruction as is thought.

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  20. 27. sij

    Market looks like it has just collectively put aftershave on like Macauley Culkin in home alone!!!!!!!

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