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BenjySarlin's profile
Benjy Sarlin
Benjy Sarlin
Benjy Sarlin
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@BenjySarlin

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Benjy SarlinVerified account

@BenjySarlin

Policy editor at @NBCNews. I cover elections and their consequences. Take it off Twitter at Benjy.Sarlin@nbcuni.com.

Washington, DC
Joined August 2008

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    1. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Jan 12

      To this scenario @DouthatNYT describes: You don't even need some dramatic crack-up for R's to run aground. If the looming Trump threat keeps the 2020 D coalition together and even small percentages of Trump R's stop turning out, that alone is a huge issue.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/opinion/trump-republican-party.html …

      6 replies 21 retweets 112 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Jan 12

      The most recent source of D strength is that they have an intensely engaged suburban base that also is more affluent and this powering record-breaking fundraising. For R's, it's a fired up rural/small city vote. It's close, but as of *right now*, this is a winning formula for D's

      3 replies 5 retweets 51 likes
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    3. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Jan 12

      Post-2020 Gerrymandering can help R's take back House in 2022 even without making significant gains in popularity. But a Trumpier House could also accelerate the same problems that cost them the 2020 elections in WH and Senate. And no sign he's going anywhere in all of this.

      3 replies 9 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
      Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin Jan 12

      The reason GOP strategists were excited after the initial November results is they saw potential to try to keep Trump's base together (and diversify it) and win back some anti-Trump moderates skeptical of D policies. That gets harder if they think the Trump threat hasn't passed.

      7:03 AM - 12 Jan 2021
      • 5 Retweets
      • 46 Likes
      • Eric Moore Aggressive Compliance SanDiegoJayR Sarah K Gabe Katz Matt Nathan Jeet Kundai Molly Ball
      6 replies 5 retweets 46 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Steve "Dimensionless Accretion Rate" Khazlolz‏ @kosturdistan Jan 12
          Replying to @BenjySarlin

          i see the coup as a strategic setback for the trump wing of the GOP

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        3. Mr. Chocolate Rain‏ @Pompicity Jan 12
          Replying to @kosturdistan @BenjySarlin

          Wrong: the GOP base is the "Trump wing". Everyone else can be treated as servicemen of donors and establishment media. You're lucky the GOP isn't already crushed as of now.

          0 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. GhostOfRepublicanismPresent‏ @GhostlyElephant Jan 12
          Replying to @BenjySarlin

          The fact of the matter is that you cannot keep Trump’s base together. It’s a fool’s errand to think the GOP can break with Trump without casting his true believers into the exterior darkness. So rip that band-aid off now and rebuild or they’ll spend decade in fear of these people

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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