I’m very skeptical of presidential forecasting models in general, but also everything I see in this story portrayed as a radical insight is something I’ve seen discussed over and over among mainstream analysts and political scientists.
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No one else has considered whether the country is more polarized now and politicians mostly operate by activating their own side to make up the final difference in margin. This is why you’ve never heard the phrase “It all comes down to turnout” in election analysis before.
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Yes it when you distort it that way, it sure does. Thanks for the promotion though. Be sure to read the forthcoming New Republic article which presents the voter file analysis that quantifies the theory & explains what I learned from the GOP 2018 surge seen in the data (senate).
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BTW: Great photo
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I've long believed swing/undecided/independent voters dont exist. The proper term for these voters are Ignorant Voters, ppl who only pay attention a few months every 4 years. But Media cant use that term so they use the euphasims "swing" and "undecided".
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I don't believe there are ANY swing voters saying let's give auhoritarianism a chance....
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You could’ve at least read the friggin article dude. Jesus.
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She’s the only one of you commentators who refuses to try to turn everything into a horse race for media ratings. All the other forecasters hedge like no other - I appreciate how she lays everything out as it is without trying to stoke drama.
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She being
@RachelBitecofer - thanks for your work!
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Congrats on the weakest and most tin eared take on this article possible! Well done, we were all rooting for you.
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