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BenjySarlin's profile
Benjy Sarlin
Benjy Sarlin
Benjy Sarlin
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@BenjySarlin

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Benjy SarlinVerified account

@BenjySarlin

Policy editor at @NBCNews. I cover elections and their consequences. Take it off Twitter at Benjy.Sarlin@nbcuni.com.

Washington, DC
Joined August 2008

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    Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin 6 Feb 2020

    There are no swing votes, candidates don’t matter, also 2016/2018 were caused by a huge shift in college and non-college voters and a third party revolt and also I missed the 2018 senate and maybe the 2020 candidate matters sounds like a solid model https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944 …

    7:06 AM - 6 Feb 2020
    • 19 Retweets
    • 69 Likes
    • Noumenon Steven Shepard Alexis Gelber Lee White Jeremiah Justin Wan CCB acceptableslice Michael Plaxton
    13 replies 19 retweets 69 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin 6 Feb 2020

        I’m very skeptical of presidential forecasting models in general, but also everything I see in this story portrayed as a radical insight is something I’ve seen discussed over and over among mainstream analysts and political scientists.

        4 replies 0 retweets 38 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Benjy Sarlin‏Verified account @BenjySarlin 6 Feb 2020

        No one else has considered whether the country is more polarized now and politicians mostly operate by activating their own side to make up the final difference in margin. This is why you’ve never heard the phrase “It all comes down to turnout” in election analysis before.

        9 replies 2 retweets 31 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Rachel Bitecofer  📈 🔭 🍌‏Verified account @RachelBitecofer 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @BenjySarlin

        Yes it when you distort it that way, it sure does. Thanks for the promotion though. Be sure to read the forthcoming New Republic article which presents the voter file analysis that quantifies the theory & explains what I learned from the GOP 2018 surge seen in the data (senate).

        4 replies 3 retweets 43 likes
      3. Debbie Lichtenstein‏ @DebbieLichtenst 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @RachelBitecofer @BenjySarlin

        BTW: Great photo

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Hotel_Lobby‏ @mangmnt_change 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @BenjySarlin

        I've long believed swing/undecided/independent voters dont exist. The proper term for these voters are Ignorant Voters, ppl who only pay attention a few months every 4 years. But Media cant use that term so they use the euphasims "swing" and "undecided".

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. P. Hyper‏ @bill_oh 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @BenjySarlin

        I don't believe there are ANY swing voters saying let's give auhoritarianism a chance....

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Randy‏ @jacksenspapa 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @BenjySarlin

        You could’ve at least read the friggin article dude. Jesus.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. just this, like incredibly pretty, stupid girl‏ @great_northland 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @BenjySarlin

        She’s the only one of you commentators who refuses to try to turn everything into a horse race for media ratings. All the other forecasters hedge like no other - I appreciate how she lays everything out as it is without trying to stoke drama.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. just this, like incredibly pretty, stupid girl‏ @great_northland 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @great_northland @BenjySarlin

        She being @RachelBitecofer - thanks for your work!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Conan Neutron‏ @conanneutron 6 Feb 2020
        Replying to @BenjySarlin

        Congrats on the weakest and most tin eared take on this article possible! Well done, we were all rooting for you.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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