18. Elon doesn't understand how modern machine learning works. See the relative imprecision of the way he talks about "AI" contra other things.
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29. Elon strives for celebrity both because it's crucial for pushing his future-vision agenda *and* because he likes the attention. Celebrity is one of the powerful ways to get into people's heads outside your domain. I don't think you can be an amazing showman sans enjoyment.
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30. Elon is surprisingly low-salience outside the kind of people who are reading this thread. In 2015, I lived downstairs from a woman who had never heard of him, Tesla, or SpaceX. Times have changed, but not that much. This is a reason why the celebrity is important.
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31. It's fascinating how tightly Elon has bound himself to his projects in our minds. Look at this thread - I use him, SpaceX, Tesla, etc. almost interchangeably. I wonder how he does it so effectively.
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32. Elon's other historical parent is Howard Hughes (in addition to Edison.) Brilliant, risk taking polymath engineer/businessmen pushing the limits in aerospace. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Hughes … Note that you've absolutely heard of Edison, but perhaps not Hughes. This will be relevant
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33. (Non-paypal) Elon projects are surprisingly low-direct-impact on most people. Most of us don't interact with rocket launches, fancy cars, etc. regularly. The promise/dream/assumption is that they will hit a tipping point to mass impact any minute now - starlink, model 3
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34. It's also fascinating that there seems to be post-SpaceX Elon and pre-SpaceX Elon. Pre-SpaceX Elon worked almost exclusively on software projects (except aborted PhD project.) I would call these two "Bitland Elon" and "Atomland Elon."
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35. Elon is the master of what
@matthewclifford calls "predictably successful" ideas. Essentially ones where you can say "we're not sure we can execute on this, but if we do, it's clear we will win so hard."http://benjaminreinhardt.com/predictably-successful-ideas …Prikaži ovu nit -
36. Most of Elon's projects ride the razor's edge between success and failure. I think both people who say any of them are doomed to failure or destined to succeed are wrong. SpaceX could be screwed by a single disaster/contract change. Tesla could lose the faith of the market
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37. The quote "you either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain" feels apt to Elon. Historically, public opinion towards celebrity innovators is shockingly fickle. As soon as they stop a steady stream of perceived successes the narrative goes sour.
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38. Elon is amazing at using hype waves and bubbles to get things off the ground but has the timing or foresight to untether from them. Paypal exited just before the stock crash. OpenAI got on the AI hype train at the right time. SpaceX+commercial launch. Tesla + greentech
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39. It's fascinating how un-involved Elon is in the startup/tech ecosystem. To my knowledge, he doesn't angel invest, help startups, sit on other boards, etc. It's his projects or bust.
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40. At first glance Elon seems unfocused (so many projects! so many industries!) but the way that he *only* works on *his* projects is actually a type of focus that few of us have. Note him divesting from OpenAI once it wasn't really his project anymore.
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41. Elon's consistent playfulness is underrated. See: twitter, tesla in space stunt, cameos in shows/movies, etc. Playfulness in general is underrated - I suspect it's a hard-to-fake indicator of thinking for yourself. Adults, esp in public, are expected to have decorum.
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42. (Weird) Elon Musk is the face of a kind of human-organization organism. He doesn't come up with all the ideas and designs or build all the things but provides the story-framework to make them all more compelling. In the same way 'humanity' kind of acts like an organism
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43. I suspect Elon's height helps him get things done. It's not talked about a lot, but Elon is a pretty big guy (6'2"/188cm) There's a lot of evidence (anecdotal and statistical) that height helps in business and leadership. I might just think this because I'm short.
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44. Ceteris paribus, Elon’s projects will not outlive him. I have seen no evidence for the systemization necessary to escape the charismatic founder/leader trap. It’s the opposite side of the direct involvement and celebrity support rallying coin. This of course could change
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45. It’s impressive how *little* generic advice Elon gives. He could easily spout “You should do X to be successful” and people would eat it up, but I haven’t seen that. (May have missed it, ofc) Usually when people sleep 3 hours and to emulate him its their own prerogative.
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46. Another notable omission is Elon opinions about (esp political) things he’s not directly involved in. Of course he’s directly involved in many things, but I have no idea what his ideas are on most issues or topics. I assume it’s tempting for him to weigh in.
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47. I suspect Elon is not a good manager. This comes from (anecdotal) evidence that teams he runs directly tend to deliver less and have a high turnover rate. Note - Being a bad manager does not make someone a bad person or a bad leader.
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48. Elon Musk’s hair looks way better now than it did 20 years ago. I suspect it makes him more effective - as much as we are lothe to admit it, we treat good looking people better. (See note earlier in thread about playfulness
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49. I worry about Elon giving false impressions about the reality of the space economy. Sadly, most space companies are bad businesses and those that might be good businesses usually face a brutal chicken and egg problem, limp along, and then die.
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50. An under-noted part of Elon's effectiveness is that he has an extremely competent personal staff who are willing to support him without trying to get personal glory.
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51. Anything out there purporting to talk about 'the real Elon' are either propaganda or a hit piece. If the author has access then Elon gets to shape the narrative. Otherwise the narrative is 'I figured out the secret!' (I think this is true for almost any living person.)
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52. Elon is almost a poster child for the idea of focusing on your sphere of influence and slowly expanding it from '7 Habits of Highly Effective People' (realized this from tweet earlier in thread on him not talking much about things he's not directly working on)
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53. Elon's family helped in his success. Having a celebrity mother and internationally known grandfather can't help but teach you things and expose you to possibilities. But that doesn't diminish his accomplishments at all. People with head starts should just face higher bars?
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54. If Elon had the 'balanced life' that many people advocate, he would fail. There just isn't enough time and mental bandwidth. That's not to say that nobody should strive for a balanced life. Some things might just not be possible to achieve while maintaining 'balance.'
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55. Given the above, it's actually impressive that he has a family at all. I honestly don't even understand how he had the bandwidth to get married, regardless of how well or badly it turned out.
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56. Elon's sweet spot is moving from Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5->9: Systems proven in relevant environments -> operation. Corollary: even if you think "oh Elon's got us covered" we still need people doing equally ambitious things in TRL 1->5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level …
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57. Elon's 'project generation function' looks like*: 1) Find old idea that had a fundamental constraint that has been relaxed by new technology 2) Figure out what can be done by 10-20 people with ~$10-50m in 1-3 years 3) Do it *From the outside, obviously
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58. I love that project generation function (see #57) and I'm secretly afraid that Elon has found all the ideas that fit it.
Prikaži ovu nit - Još 52 druga odgovora
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