Ben Reinhardt

2. Elon is a master of seamless story modification. (Paraphrased) In interviews before OpenAI: “I always knew there were 3 important things: money, transportation, and space” After OpenAI: “I always knew there were 4 important things: money, transportation, space, and AI”

3. Elon set a precedent of “you need to go make a bunch of money in software before you can work on sweet sci fi shit” My hunch is that this is net negative because of the number of people who go for the first part and get stuck.

4. Elon doesn’t so much shift Overton windows as punches new ones. (Aside - most of these opinions are going to have a slightly negative tinge. I am actually a huge Elon fan but most of the good things to say have been done to death. Will try to do new when I can.)

5. Elon’s popularity* is a signal of latent desire for ambitious projects in the physical world. People don’t see how they can contribute so they root for him. The logical conclusion is that we need more outlets for that enthusiasm. *even detractors say “sweet, but won’t work”

6. Elon’s ability to force of will things into existence obscures how badly we need new systems for turning science fiction into reality. “Clearly the system works ok - we have SpaceX and Tesla and OpenAI etc.” is a more dangerous sentiment than “no that won’t work”

7. Elon’s charisma and “first principles” arguments for the way big problems should be attacked creates an uphill battle for other options that don’t have an advocate. Reusable rockets are great, but what about EM launchers? Solar panels are great, but what about fission? Etc

8. People forget that Elon was basically treated like a crackpot for *years* before SpaceX successfully launched. The question it raises is “how many projects have died because their crackpot leaders weren’t well-connected decamillionaires?”

9. Elon is an exemplar of definite optimism. He has a clear, well articulated vision of a science fiction future. It’s compelling, but crowds out other equally awesome futures. Read science fiction. Learn the associated science. Decide for yourself.

10. Many people have noted how the visions of Elon’s companies have convinced some of the best in the world to work more hours for less money. It’s not just mission- it’s mission + rational hope of success. If you have influence and power- help missions bootstrap that hope.

11. Elon is a great case study for people who reject the “great man” theory of history. As someone who cared about space and energy before Elon got into them, I would like to hear arguments for why what had happened was inevitable.

12. Elon is neither a flawless god-king or a lucky huckster. Or maybe he’s both. In some cases he’s spot on, visionary, and inspiring. In some cases he’s misguided, misleading, and irresponsible. I suspect you may not be able to get one without the other.

13. Elon’s recent successes are due to both free markets *and* governments. SpaceX couldn’t exist without NASA - both direct $$ and process knowledge. Tesla+Li-ion tech has gotten tons of government subsidies. And all would be wasted without market incentives. (Controversial)

14. Ascribing superhuman qualities to Elon is bad for two reasons. 1) It hamstrings ambition. "I need 8 hours of sleep and I'm not a millionaire so might as well not try." 2) It chills support for ambitious projects. "I like what she's trying to do, but she's no Elon..."

15. Elon Musk should cause cognitive dissonance in more people: "Software is how to change the world!"//"SpaceX, Boring Company, Hyperloop are some of the most exciting projects!" "I don't invest in hardware companies"//"I wish I had invested in Tesla/SpaceX" "Specialize!"

16. Elon's communication style is super effective in part because of his precision. Pay attention to how much detail he uses but how it's in service of the bigger point.

17. Elon's precise communication style completely makes you forget that he's not actually the best orator. Most people do the opposite - they use superb oratory to obscure imprecise thought.

18. Elon doesn't understand how modern machine learning works. See the relative imprecision of the way he talks about "AI" contra other things.

19. Elon is the direct intellectual descendent of Thomas Edison. Both were master storytellers who hoarded credit and used it to build larger-than-life reputations as innovators and used it to push massive technological change into the world.

20. Most of the ideas attributed to Elon aren't original, but that doesn't matter. What is original: His articulation of them in a way that makes them seem feasible and excites people. This is why it's stupid to dismiss ideas just 'because they've been tried before.'

21. Other things that I think are both true and don't matter: 1) I have a hunch Elon is a brutal boss 2) He gives the impression he does things singlehandedly 3) Elon's Mom is a celebrity and his family is well-connected

22. Elon's balance between get-shit-done intensity and playfulness is underrated. It's very easy to get pushed one way or another.

23. Elon illustrates the power of cultural cross-disciplinarianism. The parties, launch events, and general feel of his companies are very LA, not Silicon Valley. What else could be unleashed by more cultural cross-disciplinarianism?

24. People shouldn't let Elon blindly polarize them. Both on the fanboy side "Elon can do no wrong!" and the hater side "Everything Elon does is a fraud/dangerous/unoriginal."

25. Elon fails to deliver on many promises* but almost eliminates the emotional/memory impact because of excellent announcement timing and storytelling. See "seamless story modification" in tweet #2 *remember solar roofs, autosummon, level 4 autonomy coming next year, etc?

27. Elon has bad feedback loops. From what I can tell not knowing him (so massive grain of salt) he has nobody he respects who can push back on his ideas. Maybe Gwynne Shotwell in a SpaceX context. Add that to hordes of fanboys who accept everything or haters who reject all.

28. It's hard to tell which parts of Elon's persona are manufactured so that he can become the person he needs to be to win and which were there originally. This probably doesn't matter.

29. Elon strives for celebrity both because it's crucial for pushing his future-vision agenda *and* because he likes the attention. Celebrity is one of the powerful ways to get into people's heads outside your domain. I don't think you can be an amazing showman sans enjoyment.

30. Elon is surprisingly low-salience outside the kind of people who are reading this thread. In 2015, I lived downstairs from a woman who had never heard of him, Tesla, or SpaceX. Times have changed, but not that much. This is a reason why the celebrity is important.

31. It's fascinating how tightly Elon has bound himself to his projects in our minds. Look at this thread - I use him, SpaceX, Tesla, etc. almost interchangeably. I wonder how he does it so effectively.