now, of course, it's also *politically impossible* to prepare the 'we lost' story, but they seem to have been really convinced they would need the win ones.
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have now heard this from GT, PD, *and* CD folk.
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this is funny but also scary on two levels: as
@Pinboard points out it backs the 'high on their own supply' theory, and Beijing's most reactionary and nasty measures often come after they've been disappointed over something they thought would workShow this thread -
more details available via DM for those who want to know, don't want to dump my sources in it.
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also HK is apparently causing quite serious moral/personal qualms for at least some of the Chinese staff involved in covering it - they might broadly agree with govt case but dislike tone, extremism of it
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any thoughts if this "certainty" has any relation to the videos and allegations of vote-buying that have been leveled against many pro-gov candidates?
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I don't think so - it seems to have been just massive overconfidence and a real conviction that ordinary Hong Kongers had been turned off by the violence and therefore backed Beijing.
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This supports the terrifying theory that they're getting fed back their own propaganda through private intelligence channels
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This has been an issue with the Liason Office for years. It seems to ceaselessly relay inaccurate, if not incorrect, information (or just information they think the top brass wants to hear) as opposed to the actual state of affairs.
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I can't believe this, sorry.
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DM if you want to know the specifics, but multiply-sourced.
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