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BeijingPalmer's profile
James Palmer
James Palmer
James Palmer
@BeijingPalmer

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James Palmer

@BeijingPalmer

Senior editor @ForeignPolicy. Author of Bloody White Baron, The Death of Mao, and upcoming Heaven's Empires. Married to @larsonchristina. Beijinger at heart.

Joined March 2013

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    James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 13h13 hours ago
    • Report Tweet

    so according to state media contacts, Beijing genuinely thought they were going to win big in the elections today, to the point of having pre-written the stories

    8:01 PM - 24 Nov 2019
    • 1,276 Retweets
    • 2,611 Likes
    • 🖐🏳️‍🌈 fatfish ❄Snowy❄雪❄😷 Pavan Gilman Grundy Jia Heng Yu kalokbb Batkhishig fffff
    122 replies 1,276 retweets 2,611 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet

        now, of course, it's also *politically impossible* to prepare the 'we lost' story, but they seem to have been really convinced they would need the win ones.

        5 replies 92 retweets 496 likes
        Show this thread
      3. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet

        have now heard this from GT, PD, *and* CD folk.

        5 replies 34 retweets 253 likes
        Show this thread
      4. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet

        this is funny but also scary on two levels: as @Pinboard points out it backs the 'high on their own supply' theory, and Beijing's most reactionary and nasty measures often come after they've been disappointed over something they thought would work

        6 replies 142 retweets 632 likes
        Show this thread
      5. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet

        more details available via DM for those who want to know, don't want to dump my sources in it.

        1 reply 19 retweets 201 likes
        Show this thread
      6. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet

        also HK is apparently causing quite serious moral/personal qualms for at least some of the Chinese staff involved in covering it - they might broadly agree with govt case but dislike tone, extremism of it

        9 replies 50 retweets 358 likes
        Show this thread
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jean Valjean‏ @synthgrizzly 12h12 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @BeijingPalmer

        any thoughts if this "certainty" has any relation to the videos and allegations of vote-buying that have been leveled against many pro-gov candidates?

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      3. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 12h12 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @synthgrizzly

        I don't think so - it seems to have been just massive overconfidence and a real conviction that ordinary Hong Kongers had been turned off by the violence and therefore backed Beijing.

        3 replies 4 retweets 42 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @BeijingPalmer

        This supports the terrifying theory that they're getting fed back their own propaganda through private intelligence channels

        13 replies 57 retweets 393 likes
      3. Liberate Hong Kong‏ @VoteChange_UK 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

        This has been an issue with the Liason Office for years. It seems to ceaselessly relay inaccurate, if not incorrect, information (or just information they think the top brass wants to hear) as opposed to the actual state of affairs.

        6 replies 14 retweets 105 likes
      4. 2 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Andrew Kloster‏Verified account @ARKloster 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @BeijingPalmer @IVMiles

        I can't believe this, sorry.

        4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 13h13 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @ARKloster @IVMiles

        DM if you want to know the specifics, but multiply-sourced.

        1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
      4. 2 more replies

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