The problem in this particular case is: winning firms could just be stealing business from losing firms! i.e. maybe if every firm could “win” the H1B lottery, there would be no net gain (2/2)
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Prikaži ovu nit
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(Obligatory PS that more immigration would be good anyway)
Prikaži ovu nit
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So in the absence of a GE research design (ie almost always?) we should conclude nothing? Seems too nihilistic an approach.
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Causal inference in general equilibrium is really hard, engrave it on my tomb stone
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Reminds me of the Crepon et al QJE paper https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/128/2/531/1942569 … Maybe the authors have some random variation of the fraction treated within each sector/market to tease out this displacement effect. That would be cool.
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I assumed the claim was not that firms would be more successful in a "free immigration" equil (e.g., more successful IPOs), but that in the current "restricted immigration" equil firms are short on some input (e.g., technical talent) that more immigration could provide.
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