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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    12. sij 2017.

    New paper, from me: "Monetary Misperceptions: Optimal Monetary Policy under Incomplete Information" /1

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  2. 20. sij

    There are (very) important reasons to be skeptical of the identification; but IMO the paper is still using a creative method to tackle a very important question Big, _if_ true!

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  3. 20. sij

    File under "big if true": new Jorda, Singh, and Taylor paper uses trilemma IV and finds that Tight monetary policy lowers productivity in the (12y) long run (!) => Expansionary monetary policy boosts long-run productivity (!) So money is not neutral?

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  4. 15. sij

    (Obligatory PS that more immigration would be good anyway)

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  5. 15. sij

    The problem in this particular case is: winning firms could just be stealing business from losing firms! i.e. maybe if every firm could “win” the H1B lottery, there would be no net gain (2/2)

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  6. 15. sij

    You *cannot* make general equilibrium conclusions from partial equilibrium studies. You *cannot* conclude from this paper that more immigration would be good (1/2)

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  7. 31. pro 2019.

    Milton Friedman channeling monetary policy econtwitter. The original subtweeting

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. pro 2019.

    My attempt to briefly make a philosophical statement of the currents in .

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    11. pro 2019.

    every time you reread this exchange it becomes better

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. lis 2019.

    Interesting to consider in the context of apology research in the private sector

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  11. 12. lis 2019.

    Related: option-implied probability that LIBOR 5y forward will be <100bps: 40-50%! This data can be updated in real-time:

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  12. 11. lis 2019.

    Repeat after me: we. are. going. to. hit. the. ZLB. again.

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  13. 11. lis 2019.
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  14. 11. lis 2019.

    Options-implied probability that US hits ZLB in next 3 years

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    9. lis 2019.

    Biggest thing in these Fed minutes: "The staff's analysis suggested that the ELB would likely bind in MOST future recessions" [ELB = effective lower bound = ~0]

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  16. 2. lis 2019.

    How should firms apologize? Summary at of our research testing economic theory using a field experiment at Uber (cc )

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    24. ruj 2019.
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    Specifically in the central banking context, arguably time inconsistency is overrated. In developed world, has there been any evidence of inflation bias in last 4 decades? And we have good theory for why time inconsistency can be overcome -- reputation (Barro-Gordon)

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    10. ruj 2019.

    In a democracy, "who can vote" ends up inextricable with "who do politicians consider to be their constituents" and "whose interests are weighed" and "who do we consider fully a person." Therefore:

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  19. 5. ruj 2019.

    You think you can't become a bigger Paul Romer fanboy and then

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  20. 31. kol 2019.

    Concrete example

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  21. 31. kol 2019.

    "You haven’t eliminated your degrees of freedom; you’ve just moved them from the model stage to the mapping stage."

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