Go on then, answer the question above. How much variance in the voting swing is explained by “grievance studies”?
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Replying to @StuartJRitchie @canguaris and
I don't know. More than enough to be decisive.
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Replying to @ConceptualJames @StuartJRitchie and
Which is to say that had it been dropped by the Democrats and mainline left in the wake of Trump's election, as many had hoped it would be, a proper blue wave would be virtually guaranteed. Trump isn't popular, and the GOP is acting unconscionably. People know and hate it.
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Replying to @ConceptualJames @StuartJRitchie and
Given his approval rating and the projected vote splits, likely more than 10 points to blue lost over this problem, translating to a likely weak House majority and Senate minority versus a potential House supermajority and slight Senate majority.
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Replying to @ConceptualJames @StuartJRitchie and
Well that's the thing. I don't think conclusions can be drawn quantitatively that would satisfy statisticians, but they rarely are in cases like this. The variables are just too chaotic; we are dealing with behavior rooted in emotion, after all. But general trends can be seen.
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Replying to @lanticavirtu @ConceptualJames and
From my understanding, the crux of this little debate is just the effect size of the PC/grievance studies variable; not whether it is a meaningful variable. You can certainly approach more quantified conclusions that would be more satisfying.
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Replying to @alex_etal @lanticavirtu and
I think it’s perfectly sensible to ask whether “grievance studies” is a cause of any polling movements whatsoever. Spurious correlations appear all the time in human behaviour research, after all.
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Replying to @StuartJRitchie @lanticavirtu and
I agree it's entirely sensible, though if one can make the case that political correctness stems heavily from grievance study literature (I'm not as I'm not well versed enough), then it's likely already safe to believe it meaningfully predicts to some degree.
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Replying to @alex_etal @lanticavirtu and
Sure. But it could easily be the other way round, or they’re both caused by some third factor, or something else. I just wish we’d be a bit more careful in asserting stuff that political scientists need to study carefully with the right kinds of data.
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Replying to @StuartJRitchie @alex_etal and
The key might really be the Obama-Trump voters. Why did they flip? I think a link to grievance studies could be established.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/upshot/the-obama-trump-voters-are-real-heres-what-they-think.html …
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I think it's far more probable that people are reacting to effects that are downstream from grievance studies than that wacky subjects in academia *themselves* would be mobilising large swaths of voters.
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Replying to @Banned_Ali @canguaris and
fox news, for instance or breitbart's
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