Do people know that the 1890 pandemic was likely caused by another coronavirus, OC43 (that was then novel?) Nowadays, no longer novel, it is one of the causes of the common cold. We're obviously not living in the OC43 pandemic since, and we won't live in a COVID pandemic forever.
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HCoV-NL63 may actually be a more plausible candidate for the 1890/91 pandemic for a a series of reasons, including: - NL63 uses the same ACE2 host cell receptor, which leads to fairly systemic infections - NL63 is a bit more virulent than OC43 2/
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- When we estimate the time to the 'Most Recent Common Ancestor' using all HCoV genomes available, we get a date largely compatible with a late 19th century host jump into humans for NL63, whereas it is more recent for OC43. 3/ Credit: Charlotte Jenner and
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I think I read that someone was trying to track down samples to shed better light on this. Has that happened yet?
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We're trying, still without success so far. In case you had some lung tissue in a jar dating back the late 19th century lying around, please let me know ...
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it would be important to know if oc43 furin cleavage site was active at time of the spillover or not.
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Could it also be influenza? I was reading an old 'original antigenic sin' paper other day which contained some observations of evidence of neutralising antibodies in old people that suggested an influenza epidemic in the 1890s. I can dig up the paper tomorrow.
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The 1889/90 pandemic could have been caused by an influenza strain; an Influenza A H2N2 or H3N8 lineage have been both suggested as possible agents. It will probably remain an open question until we get decent genomes from the viruses that infected people at the time.
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With these previous pandemics I wonder what the death toll have been if we'd mass tested asymptomatic people.
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Changes in all cause mortality would be more useful, if the historical records were complete.
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