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The new 'UK #SARSCoV2 variant' (lineage B 1.1.7) which has recently gone up in frequency in the UK has been identified in numerous countries including in Denmark, where its frequency remained at ~1% in mid-December.
1/https://twitter.com/MadsAlbertsen85/status/1343635065574666242 …
If the 'UK variant' were more contagious, its frequency should increase wherever it is present. Otherwise what we're likely observing are random inter-lineage fluctuations, typical of epidemics (see lower panel below; UK variant in dark orange). 2/ Source: https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/united-kingdom?d=tree,map,frequencies&f_country=United%20Kingdom&p=grid …pic.twitter.com/OOlSKsiTeu
Still a small numbers game so random effects likely most important now. Watching closely in DK. Also large regional differences (although numbers still small..)
The first 'UK variant' isolate was observed in Denmark on Nov 9. It doesn't seem it's really gone up in frequency by mid-Dec. We should know soon whether it will. They sequence a lot in Denmark, and their approach looks like proper surveillance (no real sampling bias).
Why do u talk facts! I want hyperbole!
That graph shows "S PCR dropouts" at the Lighthouse labs (a handy proxy for tracking the new variant). There's always been a small percent of these dropouts, even before the new strain appeared. So the low levels seen prior to Nov are not the new strain.
My non-scientific take - the only evidence that the UK variant transmits faster is “it’s transmitting faster”. But we’ve seem rapid outbreaks all across Europe and UK cases per million aren’t exceptional. Why is Switzerland, Austria or Czechia explainable without mutations? 1/2
To me it seems like we just can’t really explain why outbreaks happen when they happen, period. This time there’s also a variant involved so we’re latching onto that. 2/2
20b variant had a similarly steep rise and was dominant - no drama - but now we have to be visible so let's cause panic. I find UK variant as a diversion from Brexit deal talks. Had they not signed there would be something else to talk about
which means, probably, it was politically used to justify new lockdows
No, it means some (quite a lot) evidence suggests it is more transmissable (Uk), other evidence (above) from other countries suggests wait and see a bit longer.
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