good question from @edyong209 's piece on the latest replication paper.
Is it possible that these prediction markets only work now because scientists have seen which studies haven't replicated, and have learned.
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like just based on reading psychology news about the replication crisis, I wouldn't bet on a study involving social priming.
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so: do these prediction markets only work among researchers who have been paying attention?
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“It’s not clear to me that if we had run the markets 10 years ago, people would have been as good.”https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/08/scientists-can-collectively-sense-which-psychology-studies-are-weak/568630/ …
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