Avik RoyVerified account

In 2008, Barack Obama was elected alongside a Democratic House majority and a Democratic Senate supermajority that eventually reached 60. In 1992, Bill Clinton won alongside a Democratic House and Senate. In 1976, Carter won with a Democratic House and Senate. In 1964, LBJ did.

Shall I go on? In 1960, JFK won and Dems had 64 Senate seats along with the House. In 1948, Truman won with 54 Senate seats and the House. In 1932, FDR won and flipped both the Senate and House to the D column. In 1912, Wilson held the House and flipped the Senate.

In 1892, Grover Cleveland re-won the Presidency, flipping the Senate to the D column and holding onto the House. In 1884, when Cleveland won his first term, however, Republicans retained the Senate but Dems controlled the House.

All this to say: if Biden ends up winning the presidency this week, but Republicans gain seats in the House and retain the Senate, Biden's governing mandate will arguably be the smallest for a Democratic president since Grover Cleveland in 1884.

RealClearPolitics classified 9 Senate races as tossups, with Republicans needing 5 to retain control. Rs have won in SC, MT, IA and probably the GA Perdue-Ossoff race. Ds have won AZ, MN. The remaining 3 are NC, ME, MI, with R leading in each (!) but many D votes not yet counted.

I wonder how much Biden's determined refusal to give a straight answer as to whether or not he would pack the Supreme Court or end the filibuster may have tilted the Senate races in the R direction.

Note also that the downballot performance of Republicans in 2020 has unusually significant consequences, because their retention of state legislators and Governors' mansions means that Republicans will control redistricting in TX, GA, NC, FL, et al. https://www.ncsl.org/blog/2020/11/04/2020-legislative-election-results-its-status-quo-in-the-states.aspx …

All in all, in the short-to-medium term, losing Trump but retaining the U.S. Senate & state capitals is a significant strategic win for the GOP. The question is long-term: will classical liberal principles survive with Dems pushed by socialists and GOP pushed by tribalists?