Also true of lottery tickets, though maybe with slightly different odds.
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somehow similar if you adjust for the time it takes to acquire a lottery ticket and the time it takes for options to vest
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Ya I don’t think that’s how the numbers work
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Take less salary for equity? Careful: Optimize for cash, because if you can’t afford your high-risk options, within 90 days of leaving a company... That equity goes back in the pile. Company and VCs have incentive to keep you from exercising, selling, anything.
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So, you’re saying one in twenty startups succeed and pays off for early employees?
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If you’re joining post series A or B? Probably
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"say one in 20", more like one in a few hundred. Life is short, that's a losing bet, even if you only stayed the one year to get past the vesting cliff and switched jobs as soon as that happened you'd still likely never see any cash for your options. Pre-IPO is another story.
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Expected value of a lottery ticket is always negative. Has anyone calculated expected value of e.g. Series A options?
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