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AustenAllred's profile
Austen Allred
Austen Allred
Austen Allred
Verified account
@AustenAllred

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Austen AllredVerified account

@AustenAllred

CEO @LambdaSchool (YC S17): A CS education that's free until you get a job. I have made remarks that I do not agree with.

San Francisco, CA
lambdaschool.com
Joined December 2010

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    Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11

    This is completely insane. "Shorting the Higher Ed Bubble." Hedge funds are making a killing shorting for-profit colleges, student loan providers, textbook companies, and student housing REITs. It's clear from data; the student loan bubble is collapsing https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/e5490e_d28addc85ae047aaad8b22a8bfd002f8.pdf …

    12:37 AM - 11 Apr 2018
    • 116 Retweets
    • 284 Likes
    • Tay Keith Josh Marshall Achal Srinivasan Parallax Optics Chimpompum Esuene Chris Fontenot Komrade J 2.0 Queen of The Wilis⚡️
    12 replies 116 retweets 284 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. St. Rev  ☯️ 🏴 😻‏ @St_Rev Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred @orthonormalist

        I'd love to believe this, but that report is two years old.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @St_Rev @orthonormalist

        The data just gets worse. Look at the performance of all the stocks they shorted, delinquencies of student loans. It’s just a continuation.

        2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      4. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred @St_Rev @orthonormalist

        Navient, Sallie Mae, Scholastic are all down over the past year while the market was up 15%; HMHC is down 34% in the past year.

        1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
      5. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred @St_Rev @orthonormalist

        The stocks mentioned in the report the past year: $NAVI down 10.07% $SLM down 5.29% $SCHL down 8.24% $HMHC down 34.72% During the time the S&P 500 was up 12.88%

        1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
      6. St. Rev  ☯️ 🏴 😻‏ @St_Rev Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred @orthonormalist

        Not to sound ghoulish, but I'm very glad to hear this.

        0 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. WagerMinds‏ @WagerMinds Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        This has countless facts wrong and is an incomplete and poorly done analysis of higher education economics.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @WagerMinds

        You're gonna have to come with examples if your'e making claims like that :)

        5 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. WagerMinds‏ @WagerMinds Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        To rebut the obviously silly "for many, costs now exceed the value of the degree" claim, check this:http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/04/is-college-worth-the-cost/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @WagerMinds

        That doesn't refute anything. It says that on average people that go to college make more money. That in no way means that college is a good deal or good decision for everyone.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. WagerMinds‏ @WagerMinds Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Do you genuinely think there's a person on earth who would back an argument as broad as "college is a good deal or good decision for everyone?"

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @WagerMinds

        Do you think there’s a person who would back a statement such as “college is becoming a better deal?”

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      8. WagerMinds‏ @WagerMinds Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        It already feels like this isn't a discussion of the misstated facts of that research piece and instead a broad, amorphous and unenlightening debate about higher ed ROI.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ben Feddersen‏ @SnoozeButtonBen Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Higher ed ITSELF can't be a speculative bubble, since you can't resell a degree. But the attendant vulture industries are due for a drawdown.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @SnoozeButtonBen

        Not every bubble is speculative

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Ben Feddersen‏ @SnoozeButtonBen Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Bubbles bursting requires some major reversal of expectations. Not sure how you have that WITHOUT speculation.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @SnoozeButtonBen

        You assume the value of a degree is x, turns out it’s x/2

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Ben Feddersen‏ @SnoozeButtonBen Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        But then what? You weren't counting on flipping the asset. Higher ed isn't going to "pop". It'll be a long, slow grind.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. Roger Kleist  🌐‏ @roger_kleist Apr 11
        Replying to @SnoozeButtonBen @AustenAllred

        I agree that bubble is the wrong word/phenomenon but there is a reckoning due. Repayment drops -> reduced loans available-> tuition drops -> then what? How does the unwinding feed on itself?

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Chris Perruna‏ @cperruna Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        I hope this bubble pops but every stock mentioned in the "Flow Point document" basically bottomed at the exact date it was written and all names trade higher today. Talk about wrong timing.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Apr 11
        Replying to @cperruna

        They’re all down significantly since the time of writing...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Chris Perruna‏ @cperruna Apr 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Wrong Austen, please learn to read a stock ticker price and chart. Posted for your viewing pleasure. Charts start Feb 18, 2016, date of your link document.pic.twitter.com/sdrcqDboIc

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Teymour‏ @Teymour_B Apr 11
        Replying to @cperruna @AustenAllred

        Why are you so aggressive?

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Chris Perruna‏ @cperruna Apr 12
        Replying to @Teymour_B @AustenAllred

        Well, when I innocently pointed out that the stocks are up since the article was posted, Austen got aggressive (as he is with other comment-ers) so I corrected him. When he continued, I figured he's stubborn or has an agenda. Read both our feeds - see who's aggressive.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. End of conversation

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