Value of the companies or their equity in the companies?
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"Our companies have a combined valuation of over $80B," so the companies themselves, not YC's stake, which would be 7% of that - dilution
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Since Houston and Ferdowsi were diluted down to 33% of Dropbox, safe to assume YC was also diluted by 2/3rds...so estimate return closer to 10x? still pretty good for that size portfolio
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Right, hence the "not including dilution," because really you're just guessing. Later they have pro-rata, but of course that changes the amount invested and thus returns. Regardless still pretty wild.
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I mean you can about return the fund with Dropbox, then you get Airbnb, Stripe, Reddit, Cruise, Twitch, etc etc etc
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Moral of the story is 120k/company gives you a hell of a lot of swings
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A better measure of central tendency in this case might be to take the median, or possibly discard outliers on both ends, such as Dropbox.
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YC and venture capital generally are about cultivating outliers. It would be perhaps more appropriate to discard the bottom 90%.
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I was just hoping to get a feel for the middling performers. I bet they're probably not looking for the next Dropbox, but probably ideas and executors that will bag them 20-40x their investment. At 1.7M initial valuation (https://www.ycombinator.com/faq/ ) to 50M current, that's 30x.
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Airbnb will be the biggest return, maybe by an order of magnitude.
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Something I’ve always wondered is “how many years could YC run off one Airbnb and no other returns with no growth in amount invested?” Haven’t done the math but it seems calculable as long as companies release funding amounts.
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What fraction of the $80B is actual returns, not paper?
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I really wonder about the median though. Like if your perform better than 50% of YC are you really worth $50M? I would assume a lot less.
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How many survived and how many died?
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