yes! check out http://predictions.global for an aggregate of the augur markets too!
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Oh really? Trump was 5:1 against on Nov 7 2016 on Predictit.
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Alternative take: prediction markets are just a worse poll-of-polls.
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Silver destroyed them in the house
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Sure, but last night when 538s model got too ‘aggressive’ in showing an R House win, prediction markets went nuts. They’re deeply correlated is all I’m saying.
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They were the only one’s showing Trump winning the day of the election two years ago. At 7:30 last night they still showed the house at 51 percent chance for Dems when it had been 70 all month.
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