YC has funded ~1,900 companies. 93 are valued at >$100m 19 are valued at >$1b Obviously this is oversimplified, but a YC founder, on average, has a 5% chance of building a $100m company, and a 1% chance of building a $1b company. And that's probably low, as most are recent.
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($9.3B + $19B)*.07 / ($175k * 1900) | obviously the >$1B companies are worth more than $1B on average, hence the "at least" on the multiple
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Whoops...denominator is $150k * 1900
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With *many* / most outcomes still to be seen (600 of the 1900 companies went through YC in the past 2 years), return already looking to be above 10x.
End of conversation
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