Let’s say an average $3/ride. Bird just hit 10 million rides in its first year. Probably growing exponentially. Non-existent to $30 million in revenue in one year. And that’s probably very conservative. Unit economics seem extremely healthy. I’d invest $100m too.
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@nickabouzeid what do you think will ultimately be the deciding factor for the winner? -
At this point, regulatory capture (permits, approvals) is the only defensible longterm strategy that will let Bird/Lime/Skip/Scoot etc compete with Uber/Lyft scooters (which win in a perfectly competitive market)
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Depending on regulatory capture will slow and fragment the growth of the market though. I’d say brand is an underrated defensible strategy here
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Brand + First To Market are defensible strategies. But, supply availability and redistribution is an underrated difficult problem. Whoever figures out incentive structures and unit economics to pay chargers at scale will have the upper hand
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I disagree on Brand. Pending multiple options, people will pick their favorite, but end of day.. If only one provider is available, they win
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This for days. Even if I prefer lime, if there isn’t one near by it’s a game of finding the company that can give me something to ride now.
End of conversation
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The whole “SV has gone nuts” in regards to these companies never made sense. Anyone whose ever walked in a big city knows how valuable these companies are
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The big complaint you hear about is defensibility. What's stopping whoever from buying a bunch of scooters from china and spinning up a competitor?
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Tbt to “what is sequoia thinking??” (With Bird) Maybe they actually knew what they were doing
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Does SoftBank come in and buy a couple and merge them + buy a spare Foxconn factory to build the scooters?
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That’s a lot of
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If all true, there must be some serious regional contract (licensing?) battles, lest the vendors dilute themselves to death in rapid fashion.
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