It seems like in the past week I've talked to about 50 people about the upcoming economic recession. Everyone is 100% convinced it's right around the corner.
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I think I discount the probability of an actual recession more as “there’s a coming recession” becomes more mainstream.
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I usually feel better about the economy if a lot of people are expecting a recession. It’s when everyone thinks things are great that I get worried.
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Do they have distinct and specific reasons, or is this some combination of "we're due" + a herd instinct?
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Here's a talk by
@RayDalio https://youtu.be/Nm0m62reFuY also his free book https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/ … and of course this video https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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It will be far more devastating than 2008.
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@TD_Lowe can you give some reasons why you think it’s going to be far more devastating? Asking from the perspective of learning, not challenging you. Thanks. -
Hi
@TD_Lowe , I’m following up to my comment from yesterday. Interested to hear you elaborate more. Thank you. -
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Many nations are drowning in debt. It won’t end well...
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What reasoning did you hear?
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Swaths of “bitcoin, not blockchain” peeps believe the collapse of is near. Ironically making or losing money makes you realize there is so much more to do.
@LambdaSchool becomes much more valuable asset!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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If you own bitcoin you may be praying on the recession. Nonetheless a recession would make
@LambdaSchool even more important and valuable to our civilization!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Do they want the Fed to raise rates or to lower rates in an attempt to avoid it?
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Raise! And hopefully it's not too late... the amount of leverage in the system from unprecedented low interest rates for the last 10 years makes a period of de-leveraging almost a foregone conclusion.
End of conversation
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Back before trump won talk was at an all time high I felt. But also way back in 2004 was lots of talk about a being in a “bubble on a bubble” specifically those words. But yes...it feels extended and which means it extends a bit more until new cycle down
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What were the top/common anticipated causes in that group?
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Student loan bubble IS in fact a bubble. Market will need to correct. When? It’s weird. It’s whenever everyone thinks that everyone else thinks that it’s time.
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Betting against the masses is a pretty safe bet.
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Taking a contra to that is usually a good idea
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There are definitely bubbles, but the economy feels strong with real fundamentals as well.
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