There are fewer Mixpanel-style opportunities. Nobody was doing analytics quite that way and it pioneered and commercialized a green field in a lot of ways. Blue ocean. More red oceans these days. Or worse: solutions in search of a problem.
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imo that’s secondary. Mixpanel only a few years ago but today is a diff era of competition for talent. Early stage VCs see this issue w/ most clarity.
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I would agree w Semil. I have been alarmed by the inability and cost to scale in the Bay Area. As a founder, you either have to be able to recruit (worked w great people before) or you have to look beyond the Bay Area. Talent does not really find you.
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The bigger story is that mega tech is paying a lot more money than startups can, even outside the SF Bay Area. That wasn’t true before.
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People care less about equity than before. The trend of assume it goes to $0 is growing. Hard to offset cash now.
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For a while, we just handed a lot less equity out & used cash. Then, when people performed, we handed out bigger chunks of equity (instead of cash) to retain people once they became believers.
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No point in "paying" market comps for an asset people don't initially care about.
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Conversely go even harder into equity based comp because that is the true measure of true belief I also think the general belief level of startup employees have gone down (not without good reason, lots have been taken advantage of by bad startups) Equity is for true believers
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It's so hard to help employees understand the value of their equity as a private company unless you're raising rounds every few years. If you tell them what it’s “worth”, you risk heightened expectations. If you don’t, uncertainty creates fear & confusion.
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I’ve found it’s almost 100% correlated with whether they know someone who actually made money from equity. Makes me wonder what the net effect of fewer companies going public will be. Secondary markets not as transparent, not as obvious if/who got rich.
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Combine that with a skyrocketing cost of living in SFBA and FAANG salaries being huge ($200k is the new $100k) and I get why people want cash instead of being wealthy on paper assuming things work out
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