Seems like probably not a major impact on the index. $24 trillion S&P 500 market cap is pretty big compared to a couple of $50 B companies.
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But what’s the market cap of would-be public companies, and, importantly, what would be the growth of their market cap if they went public earlier? Probably not enough to move market as a whole too much, but if your retirement fund is banking on 4% YOY the margins matter
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Yeah, I’m assuming something like Uber would be the biggest in the $50-70 B range. So that would be 0.3% of the index over say 3-4 years. Not that big at first glance. It also doesn’t seem like those companies are capital constrained.
End of conversation
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Such an interesting question that I'm sure we will see reseach about for years to come. Part of it is the counterfactual--what would have happened to Uber, Airbnb etc if they had gone public 3 years ago?
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Don't think amazon was originally in the S&P500. Most tech companies were likely added when they were more mature anyways, so you'd likely get a similar rate of return
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