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AustenAllred's profile
Austen Allred
Austen Allred
Austen Allred
Verified account
@AustenAllred

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Austen AllredVerified account

@AustenAllred

CEO @LambdaSchool (YC S17): A CS education that's free until you get a job. I have made remarks that I do not agree with.

San Francisco, CA
lambdaschool.com
Joined December 2010

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    Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Aug 11

    Austen Allred Retweeted EquityZen

    Does anyone understand the net effect of high growth/risk companies staying private longer? Is it enough to affect the rate of return of, say, the S&P 500? I have no sense of scalehttps://twitter.com/EquityZen/status/1028313544603971584 …

    Austen Allred added,

    EquityZenVerified account @EquityZen
    Replying to @bryanhasling @AdamSinger and 3 others
    Amazon at IPO in 1997: - $16M in Q1 revenue - $438M Market Cap - Raised $54M So, basically a Series B VC Funding Round in 2018. We're working on it!
    9:21 AM - 11 Aug 2018
    • 3 Retweets
    • 12 Likes
    • Rahul Ramchandani Nick Campbell SGA VC Spencer Schneier Randolph Lopez B. saif🔆 Goddamn Tootin Aly Sivji David McDougall
    3 replies 3 retweets 12 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Greg Gentschev‏ @gentschev Aug 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Seems like probably not a major impact on the index. $24 trillion S&P 500 market cap is pretty big compared to a couple of $50 B companies.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Aug 11
        Replying to @gentschev

        But what’s the market cap of would-be public companies, and, importantly, what would be the growth of their market cap if they went public earlier? Probably not enough to move market as a whole too much, but if your retirement fund is banking on 4% YOY the margins matter

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Greg Gentschev‏ @gentschev Aug 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Yeah, I’m assuming something like Uber would be the biggest in the $50-70 B range. So that would be 0.3% of the index over say 3-4 years. Not that big at first glance. It also doesn’t seem like those companies are capital constrained.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Robb Ponti‏ @RobbPonti Aug 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Such an interesting question that I'm sure we will see reseach about for years to come. Part of it is the counterfactual--what would have happened to Uber, Airbnb etc if they had gone public 3 years ago?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Nick‏ @nachkari Aug 11
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Don't think amazon was originally in the S&P500. Most tech companies were likely added when they were more mature anyways, so you'd likely get a similar rate of return

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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