The Detroit scenario is a bad analogy. It only applies if the fundamentals that make SF successful go away, and the industry disappears permanently. That isn't happening any time soon.
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Also let's not forget that sans-tech SF is a beautiful costal city with a stunning natural landscape and amazing things to do within a 3 hour drive in any direction.
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yeah...location location location
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The machines rise up after realizing we are harming the entire planet and they decide to turn us into organic batteries and isolate our conscious into Docker containers running on OpenStack, powered by old Sun Microsystems servers.
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Then the standard tech startup changes. HQ in the Bay area with 4-10 people and everyone else in a remote market. HQ will always need to be close to capital and VC would be the last to move.
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Oh, and when the Bay Area is a tad less overheated, it’s a fantastic place to live. The cycle starts again.
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worst case: you end up with 5 mediocre cities for innovation which don't rival the economic/cultural impact of 1 mega-city
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“Mediocre cities” LOL Trust me, we can do without this brand of cultural impact
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There is a balancing mechanism. 1 bigco leaves and 5K houses go on sale in San Francisco. Prices begin to stabilize and drop. The next company may not choose to leave b/c prices have stabilized
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This is what it'd take.
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Detroit...
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If: SF becomes the place to get investments, for specific highly specialized departments and prestige offices.
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Probably not the worst case scenario. More likely scenario is both housing and tech will collapse in prices again as they have historically again.
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Des Moines suddenly gets hip...
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When I see fair trade, organic, artisanal coffee and the Flying J in Davenport I'll know the end is near.
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People keep moving to Phoenix where it’s a desert with no water, and urban sprawl is a pass time and houses are cheap... and then we all die.
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VCs have to start really deal sourcing and stop ignoring cold emails from founders who have to do so much more hustle and milestones than bay area companies
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Problem is replicated in 5 years
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Unlikey. The roots of the crisis here go waaaay deeper than that. The compounding effects of Prop. 13, for example have had ~40 years to grow.
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Sure, 5 years may be too fast an estimate, but If you moved one, let alone three or four, top-tier companies from SV to anywhere else in toto & immediately, it would crush the market in the new location, while leaving a SVvacuum that would not take a whole lot of time to fill.
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