Lots of people use survivorship bias as a way to excuse a lack of success and to justify a lack of control over causing success.
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Yup, you dont get to not do anything to increase odds of success and use this bias as justification
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And the problem is recursive -- people who copy the path from others' success, and then go on to succeed, regard themselves as evidence that there is a formula.
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I think it makes it harder but not impossible
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Do you believe in that? I think one should be aware of it but should always learn habits & mindset needed for increasing odds of success. Relevant : https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1009490034003759110 … see my response to it
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Nah. Do learn from them, just don't put too much probabilistic weight on them. Look at the base rates (how many people try?) to calibrate your priors, then adjust using success stories as small but relevant pieces of evidence.
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You can learn from others' success if you start measuring from before success arrives and are paying attention to both those who succeeded and those who failed
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Successes are useful so long as you're looking at them in the context with the vast sea of failures.
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It's interesting that people gravitate towards studying success versus gaining experience directly or studying failure. Coincidence that both alternatives are more work?
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You can't learn how to succeed from successful people - you actually only really only learn how to survive. It's why candid startup stories are so powerful - they usually are stories of inflexion points for when a company could have died, but didn't.
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For an individual success point absolutely - completely worthless. Not necessarily at scale via an appropriate multivariate analysis.
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Can learn from their failures though
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Not impossible - just really hard. All it means is that the nice little narratives successful people like to create about themselves are usually not true - and there are more factors at play...
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Eg. People like to talk about willpower and motivation (..’grit’) a lot because they feel like those things say more about them. But there are usually loads more important things than those (not that they aren’t important though).
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What about successful serial entrepreneurs?
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nah! it just means as with life you have to separate luck and skill. copy the skill.
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Not impossible, just more complicated than the consumable narrative.
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I suppose you can expose people to perturbations so extreme that, given the # of initial players, only positive selection effects could explain the survivors.
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