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AustenAllred's profile
Austen Allred
Austen Allred
Austen Allred
Verified account
@AustenAllred

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Austen AllredVerified account

@AustenAllred

CEO @LambdaSchool (YC S17): A CS education that's free until you get a job. I have made remarks that I do not agree with.

San Francisco, CA
lambdaschool.com
Joined December 2010

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    Austen Allred‏Verified account @AustenAllred Jun 20

    Basically survivorship bias means it's impossible to learn from others' success

    10:36 AM - 20 Jun 2018
    • 8 Retweets
    • 73 Likes
    • Elyse Zuber Giuliano Giacaglia Jowe Hernandez Rahul Ramchandani I robin rolison Arnaud 🚀 🌐 Derek Cryptarchist
    16 replies 8 retweets 73 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Tyler Hogge  🎯‏ @thogge Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Lots of people use survivorship bias as a way to excuse a lack of success and to justify a lack of control over causing success.

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Sar Haribhakti‏ @sarthakgh Jun 20
        Replying to @thogge

        Yup, you dont get to not do anything to increase odds of success and use this bias as justification

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Clay Shirky‏Verified account @cshirky Jun 22
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        And the problem is recursive -- people who copy the path from others' success, and then go on to succeed, regard themselves as evidence that there is a formula.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1.  🤖 Sonya Mann  🎀‏Verified account @sonyaellenmann Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        I think it makes it harder but not impossible

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Sar Haribhakti‏ @sarthakgh Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Sar Haribhakti Retweeted Morgan Housel

        Do you believe in that? I think one should be aware of it but should always learn habits & mindset needed for increasing odds of success. Relevant : https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1009490034003759110 … see my response to it

        Sar Haribhakti added,

        Morgan HouselVerified account @morganhousel
        "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." "Survivorship bias is what happens when someone cites that damn quote."
        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Francesca Pallopides‏ @FPallopides Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Nah. Do learn from them, just don't put too much probabilistic weight on them. Look at the base rates (how many people try?) to calibrate your priors, then adjust using success stories as small but relevant pieces of evidence.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Vikram Bath1 👻‏ @vikrambath1 Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        You can learn from others' success if you start measuring from before success arrives and are paying attention to both those who succeeded and those who failed

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Drew Moxon‏ @DSMoxon Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Successes are useful so long as you're looking at them in the context with the vast sea of failures.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Will Bickford‏ @wbic16 Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        It's interesting that people gravitate towards studying success versus gaining experience directly or studying failure. Coincidence that both alternatives are more work?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Pasha Rayan‏ @Pashpops Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        You can't learn how to succeed from successful people - you actually only really only learn how to survive. It's why candid startup stories are so powerful - they usually are stories of inflexion points for when a company could have died, but didn't.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Greg McBeth‏ @gregmcbeth Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        For an individual success point absolutely - completely worthless. Not necessarily at scale via an appropriate multivariate analysis.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Dominic Smith‏ @d_innovator Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Can learn from their failures though

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Andrew‏ @atmuch1 Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Not impossible - just really hard. All it means is that the nice little narratives successful people like to create about themselves are usually not true - and there are more factors at play...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Andrew‏ @atmuch1 Jun 20
        Replying to @atmuch1 @AustenAllred

        Eg. People like to talk about willpower and motivation (..’grit’) a lot because they feel like those things say more about them. But there are usually loads more important things than those (not that they aren’t important though).

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jeremie Harris‏ @jeremiecharris Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        What about successful serial entrepreneurs?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. telospolis‏ @telospolis Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        nah! it just means as with life you have to separate luck and skill. copy the skill.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. pristine schemes‏ @atthatmatt Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        Not impossible, just more complicated than the consumable narrative.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Derek‏ @PereGrimmer Jun 20
        Replying to @AustenAllred

        I suppose you can expose people to perturbations so extreme that, given the # of initial players, only positive selection effects could explain the survivors.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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