Why can’t I start a scooter company tomorrow, go take 8000 scooters to city x, and compete with Bird overnight? Am I missing something?
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think there are less obvious network effects in software and charging than might appear on the surface.
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https://stratechery.com/2018/the-scooter-economy/ … I believe answers your question. Also the follow up if you are a subscriber.
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Indeed. I just don't see the same level of network effect that Uber enjoys by owning the largest driver + rider platform. Sure the co w/ most scooters in given city may become go-to app. But like you said, it's easier to push out 8k scooters than recruiting 8k drivers.
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Scooters are also way more visible/discoverable and branded since they don't come to you like an Uber which often looks like any other car. Odds are you will see multiple competing scooter brands in one place.
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think the core idea of pmt for charging/rebalancing is not getting enough mentions. it's now a 2-sided marketplace, harder for competitors to enter
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I guess they believe there really is a first mover if you saturate a city. If they drop 10,000 scooters in St Louis, probably precludes the competitor.
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All other things being equal, first scooter company with app on homescreen wins. It’ll probably just be Uber. They can ship an update instead of requiring a new app download.
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In reality, Uber also have: - world class on demand experience - mainstream brand equity - enough cash to bleed out their competitors / maybe undercut them at a loss to do so The scooter startup race is a beauty contest for who can get acquired by Uber & Lyft the quickest imo.
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Uber acquiring Jump (electrify bikes) and working on Elevate shows their looking to dominate multiple forms of on demand transport.
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I'm guessing 1) Licensing as a potentially big barrier to entry and 2) platforms rising as winners start to emerge. Platforms with good (and lots of) data will likely be able to monetize that data very effectively which could help to significantly subsidize their costs
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that's a good point - it's a one-sided market. all i can think of are economies of scale wrt negotiating with local governments & engineering, but they're not strong arguments.
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