I have no idea whether it is or isn't right around the corner, but I've never seen so many people so convinced that it is
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It seems like in the past week I've talked to about 50 people about the upcoming economic recession. Everyone is 100% convinced it's right around the corner.
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Assuming this is true: what would be the best investment approach? Same question for - "Assuming this is too early and it takes 5 more years to get there" - "Assuming this won't happen but you have to assume it will"
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still hoping for an answer if someone got one :)
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You can’t time a big drop/recession. If you try you will fail as a result missing large gains. Charts of predictors always show this. You’re young. Invest in passive index funds contribute at regular time intervals (w/employer match if you can).
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For regular intervals to work though, you need to be doing it consistently ie. During good times and the bad
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Can we get on with it already? I'd like to buy a house someday.
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Predicting the next recession is way above my pay grade but here are some things that worry me: wages have been stagnant but healthcare cost and taxes will increase which will put pressure on an already stretched salary. Savings are the lowest they've been and most folks in debt.
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From a corporate perspective, while a lot of notable public companies are cash rich, majority of companies are carrying unhealthy levels of debt. Also, it's kinda like the music tends to get really good before the party is over... markets tend to peak right before the music stops
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So I'm thinking that means we are in for one of the greatest economic booms in history
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“I think I see the corner of the global recession”
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Reminds me of my favorite burn of all time in a speaker introduction: “Peter has accurately predicted 11 of the last 2 major recessions”
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What are people citing as the source? Debt levels? Trade wars? Market bubble?
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Believe Austen, it doesnt come when most are expecting
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Most likely 2020. Increasing global interest rate divergence coupled with overweighting of select few stocks in indexing and ETF illiquidity seem like the obvious culprits.
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what about consumer debt/gdp & brick and mortar retail loan defaults?
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Also good points
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My thinking is it's the cognitive dissonance of the economy going well while the country is being governed by complete morons that makes people think it's unsustainable
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