In recent days we had long discussions on twitter instigated by @MLiebreich in which emotions ran high. Many people from "my community" on energy twitter just found out that the IPCC scenarios used inputs in terms of burning fossil fuel that where 'out of this world'.
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The climate scientists said "Don't blame us! You energy people give us inputs and we run the models!" And we energy people said: "We don't know these energy people! They are more pessimistic than our most pessimistic scenarios like the
@IEA no-new-policies scenarios!"Prikaži ovu nit -
We energy people said: "A baseline of: "we are all going to switch back to coal after 2050" is simply ludicrous!" And yet there it was: even the super-conservative "do nothing extra" IEA scenario was more optimistic than IPCC baseline.pic.twitter.com/VQDOjajHG5
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What does this article mean? It means that some progress has been made and that the truly scary "your children's world will be uninhabitable" scenarios are now even less likely than before. It also means we have made progress and the IPCC does not fully internalize this yet.
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It doesn't mean we can be complacent! We are still in the sixth mass extinction and millions of people will die from climate change, even in best case scenarios. We are nowhere near staying below 2C, let alone 1.5C. But it means that we CAN change our destiny! We ARE doing that!
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And it means that if we really try to embrace cleantech and smarter solutions we can stay rich and lift most of the world out of poverty while still sharply reducing out resource use and CO2 output. This is not about saying goodbye to wealth but about being smarter about it.
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Finally it means that twitter can change things. I got to understand climate scientists and the IPCC scenarios better and I hope that the discussions I participated in helped in the creation of this blogpost or at least helps me to spread the word regarding it. Today was good!
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Some extra background. It might indeed have been somewhat of a communication breakdown and recognizing this helps us to achieve more together as climate and energy experts.https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1207383183521542145?s=19 …
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And this is the great
@Peters_Glen giving his view on the article.https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1207583096549322752 …Prikaži ovu nit -
I feel I must add here what I've already said in threads. I regret using the words 'unthinkable' and 'bypassing'. I meant 'unthinkable in the light of recent twitter discussions' and 'reporting directly' instead of being buried in a process. I thought it was uplifting & brave.
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And I love the IPCC. Truly. BUT the process is slow and often imperfect and I think there is an urgent need to address the fact that extreme scenarios are not described as highly unlikely and that the connection to realistic energy inputs seems lost. Both are problematic imho.
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