My current judgment is that if anything, my claim that over an unspecified horizon “thousands would die” takes too serene a view of the health consequences of the tax bill.http://wapo.st/2Ao8QRZ?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.ea2a03457ba0 …
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Replying to @LHSummers
Here are the data. My
@NEJM review with Baicker and Summers of the last decade of research on coverage and health: For every ~300 to 800 adults who gained coverage, one life was saved per year. http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMsb1706645 …3 replies 80 retweets 108 likes -
~10M lose private or Medicaid coverage with tax bill’s repeal of individual mandate. 10M / 300-800 = 12,500-33,333 deaths per year.http://catalyst.nejm.org/effects-health-insurance-survival/ …
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Latest data: Even young adults’ lives are at risk. Recent study found a 3 to 6% reduction in disease-related mortality for 19-25 year olds who gained coverage (under the ACA’s dependent coverage provision). http://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/Citation/2017/05000/The_Affordable_Care_Act_s_Dependent_Care_Coverage.10.aspx …
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Here's how coverage improves health: by assuring people have a regular source of care and can afford needed medications and treatments. Improvements in health & finances were rapid; survival gains were greatest for people with chronic disease -- esp heart disease, cancer, HIV.
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Specifics from our review of data on health effects of coverage 1. 15-30% more people got screened for high cholesterol and cancer.
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2. Nearly twice as many patients take necessary diabetes medication.
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3. Depression symptoms (leading cause of disability in US) are reduced by 30%, and more people are diagnosed successfully.
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4. More low-income patients get necessary surgery for colon cancer before it's too late.
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5. Result: 25% more people report being in good or excellent overall health.
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6. Longest study: gaining Medicaid cut deaths by 6% over 5 years. The biggest gains were for people w chronic conditions like heart disease, cancer, and HIV. (Note: the "welcome mat effect" of the mandate means repeal is expected to lead millions to not obtain Medicaid.)
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7. The longer people have coverage, the greater the mortality reduction.
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Our conclusion: Coverage expansion has made people healthier and helped tens of thousands per year live longer, healthier lives. Weakening coverage will increase medical debts, untreated sickness, and deaths.
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