Haldane: “Modern finance is too complex. You do not fight complexity with complexity.” http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2012/075.aspx …
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@Atul_Gawande surgery is crisis management, not crisis prevention. Cancer prevention is simple, not complex. (Don't smoke!) -
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@felixsalmon Ah, but getting people to stop smoking... Simple idea, complex execution (high taxes, restaurant bans, cultural opposition) - 1 more reply
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@Atul_Gawande Complexity and simplicity are not attributes of things, but of our models of them.@felixsalmonThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande The difference between cancer and financial systems is that people create and can somewhat simplify the latter.@felixsalmon -
@michaelbolton interesting, but: a) battery and lightbulb, b) multicore CPU.#qed@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon -
@jddj We can understand CPUs, but not comprehensively. cf. Pentium bug, Intel errata sheets, etc. CPU@atul_gawande@felixsalmon -
@michaelbolton my point is: complexity is not simply an attribute of our mental model. It's often quantifiable.@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon -
@jddj Often quantifiable *by a mental model*, and that's where risk loves to hang out.#TheBlackSwan@atul_gawande@felixsalmon -
@michaelbolton if the mental model is "apply power and it comes on", that hides real, irreducible complexity.@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon -
@jddj I was also thinking, "Obtain a bulb." Look at all the complexity behind that! Like: how was it made?@atul_gawande@felixsalmon -
@michaelbolton "The Toaster Project": http://www.thetoasterproject.org/@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon
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@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon Complexity is reduced when variability is reduced. This is not happening in medicine.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon (Part 2/2) Solution: for example, leverage ratios for#banks are the way forward for#CRD4Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon (Part 1/2) Haldane not >< complexity; he criticises that responses to crises have been to increase complexity!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande@felixsalmon Question is how far do you go? Massive resections leading to no good, but still on, thinking it just might help.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande Human body is inherently irreducibly complex. Financial complexity is created, serves only the creators via asymmetric info.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande Yet there are some surgeries you see as straightforward, relative to other surgeries.@felixsalmonThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande Example: there IS a simple answer to cancer: cut it out (oversimple). So we'll get you (complex) do the cutting.@felixsalmonThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Atul_Gawande We're always try to understand things by using simpler models of them. But we must avoid *over*simplifying.@felixsalmonThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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