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AtomsksSanakan's profile
Atomsk's Sanakan
Atomsk's Sanakan
Atomsk's Sanakan
@AtomsksSanakan

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Atomsk's Sanakan

@AtomsksSanakan

Christian; Science, Denialism Debunked, Philosophy, Manga, Death Metal, Pokémon, Immunology FTW; Fan of Bradford Hill + Richard Joyce

USA
Joined June 2017

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    Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

    1/U John Ioannidis has a new paper on COVID-19. He illegitimately downplays the number of COVID-19 deaths, which suits the narrative of those who downplay COVID-19's severity to undermine policies they dislike. So... a thread. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1422352553040388102 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00787-9 …pic.twitter.com/NJJoHV8pgM

    8:45 PM - 2 Aug 2021
    • 62 Retweets
    • 164 Likes
    • Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität D-Bistoli (II) vladimir saltao Paolo Pavan gred #Vaccinata #facciamorete🇪🇺🌍🌈😽✊ Boback Ziaeian 🤦🏻‍♂️ Bruno Vuan Dr Kit Byatt Filialleiter
    13 replies 62 retweets 164 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        2/U Since at least March 2020, Ioannidis downplayed the pandemic's severity by, for example, falsely claiming SARS-CoV-2 has a fatality rate comparable to seasonal influenza. That justifiably annoyed folks. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1378481264034988038 … from @hildabast: https://absolutelymaybe.plos.org/2021/05/31/peering-through-the-smoke-at-a-duel-over-covids-infection-fatality-rate/ …pic.twitter.com/rlDaEtaYvG

        1 reply 1 retweet 31 likes
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      3. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        3/U Ioannidis now uses a model he made to estimate how much various countries over-estimate or under-estimate COVID-19 deaths. Ironic, his many of his fans think models are bad. Oh well. 🤷‍♂️ from 18:27 - 20:16 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_ehqHQOBO0&t=1107s … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00787-9 …pic.twitter.com/TaGB8rDIKH

        1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
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      4. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        4/U A good contrast here is the work of @GidMK. Ioannidis targeted @GidMK for repeated harassment after @GidMK (among others) pointed out errors in Ioannidis' attempts to downplay COVID-19's severity. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1376472127562481664 … https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1376080062131269634 … https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13423 …pic.twitter.com/qZyZBQPhVH

        2 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
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      5. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        5/U @GidMK's first paper suggested that countries may under-estimate COVID-19 deaths, as reflected in excess mortality they miss. Excess deaths are extra deaths beyond what one would have predicted based on prior years. https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1422203239899049991 … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7524446/ …pic.twitter.com/8nDjjDWz7n

        1 reply 2 retweets 25 likes
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      6. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        6/U Ioannidis objects to using data on excess deaths to estimate COVID-19 deaths. Ironic, since he relies on excess deaths for flu when he wanted to try to (wrongly) make flu look as bad as COVID-19. 🙄 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1271111134070874117 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00787-9 …pic.twitter.com/ocArjo70hD

        1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
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      7. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        7/U Ioannidis also cited excess deaths when he thought it made COVID-19 look less dangerous. This is a common pattern with Ioannidis + many of his defenders: they abuse double-standards and employ motivated reasoning. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1380135172943847426 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/Ge8xtGbeBl

        1 reply 0 retweets 30 likes
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      8. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        8/U Ioannidis' reasoning on excess deaths is bad. Here's an analogy: Suppose someone had a heart attack. Their hospital lacks basic resources that could have saved them. So they die. Did the heart attack cause their death? Yes. https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1370758996122947586 … https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1370541136360529926 …pic.twitter.com/GKV7alcdtv

        1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
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      9. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        Atomsk's Sanakan Retweeted Tim Skellett

        9/U Yes, better healthcare could have saved them. But without the heart attack, they would not have died. Their death is an excess death, if compared to a world without heart attacks. Parallel point for COVID-19 + excess deaths, contrary to Ioannidis.https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1370706616291561474 …

        Atomsk's Sanakan added,

        Tim Skellett @Gurdur
        "what RLY causes death from rabies is lack of vaccination" — shorter John Ioannidis. That is indeed the idiocy of his argument. https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1370541136360529926 …
        2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
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      10. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        10/U Ioannidis also claims that many excess deaths were caused not by COVID-19, but the public health response to COVID-19 (ex: lockdowns). https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1325222059123859456 … Work from @gidmk, @LeaMerone, @GYamey, @flaxter, @DrSamirBhatt, etc. helps here: https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/8/e006653 …pic.twitter.com/BHMqrdAcqD

        1 reply 1 retweet 22 likes
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      11. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        11/U So contrary to what Ioannidis insinuates, Peru's government likely made the right choice when updating their reported COVID-19 death total in a way that more closely matched excess deaths. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1406136731598995456 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1406137591351681026 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00787-9 …pic.twitter.com/eyoxw754hw

        3 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
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      12. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        12/U Another target of Ioannidis' ire is @GidMK's + @BillHanage's paper that's relied on by the WHO, USA CDC, etc. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1395614379127803907 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1374617361194565634 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1375946354002952192 … 22:23 - 23:18: https://youtube.com/watch?v=B_ehqHQOBO0&t=1343s … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210v1.full-text …pic.twitter.com/WmolTYk6cm

        1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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      13. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        13/U Levin et al., the paper Ioannidis objects to, estimates the proportion of SARS-CoV-2-infected people who die of the disease COVID-19; i.e. it estimates the infection fatality rate, or "IFR". IFR is in Ioannidis' model. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1375943659779198976 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00787-9 …pic.twitter.com/I2v7Obf5CG

        1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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      14. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        14/U So if the actual number of COVID-19 deaths matches the predictions of Levin et al., then Ioannidis is wrong. Take India as an example. Earlier model-based work from May 2021 estimated ~1.2 million deaths for an IFR of ~0.25%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.25.21257823v1.full-text …pic.twitter.com/iU9yo2Ivd9

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
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      15. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        15/U Levin et al. implies an IFR of ~0.5% for India, with ~4 million COVID-19 deaths by June 2021. That fits with more empirical estimates India's deaths, drawn from multiple lines of evidence. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1418977661402161161 … "yields an IFR of 0.54 percent" https://cgdev.org/sites/default/files/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic.pdf …pic.twitter.com/RWVvch8Gdb

        1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
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      16. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        16/U Conversely, Ioannidis says India isn't under-estimating COVID-19 deaths as much "India’s under-estimation is further attenuated by a much lower F due to younger population with very low obesity rates" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00787-9 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1418972589784018959 … https://cgdev.org/sites/default/files/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic.pdf …pic.twitter.com/DOFjQdnJvZ

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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      17. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        17/U Mexico is another telling example. Levin et al. implies an IFR of ~0.5% based on Mexico's Ensanut survey: https://ensanut.insp.mx/encuestas/ensanutcontinua2020/informes.php … https://twitter.com/inspmx/status/1362432814549975043 … But that implies ~50,000 more deaths than Mexico's official reported COVID-19 death total. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1/figures/4 …pic.twitter.com/9xSGXy5sfo

        1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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      18. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        18/U A review of death certificates by Ruy López Ridaura, director of the National Centre for Preventive Programs and Disease Control, showed ~50,000 further deaths. So basically what Levin et al. predicted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqYlV9-Ck9E&t=537s … https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4182 …pic.twitter.com/iQNJdX45nr

        1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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      19. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        19/U Levin et al. implies ~1% IFR for St. Petersburg, Russia. But the Russian government's official total under-estimates COVID-19 deaths: https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1740-9713.01486 … https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336  [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v3 …] Excess deaths fits the prediction: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261428v1.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/LI2fSl6pKr

        1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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      20. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        20/U Given how wrong Ioannidis was, it's disgusting how he smears doctors to make it look like he was right in downplaying COVID-19. "Some financial incentives [30] may promote coding for COVID-19." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00787-9 … @JHowardBrainMD: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/what-exactly-did-the-virus-do-to-all-these-people-reflections-on-ted-nugent-mel-q-kelly-brogan-and-john-ioannidis/ …pic.twitter.com/IpMEJl4gVt

        3 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
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      21. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        21/U Also ridiculous that he peddled 'global IFR' of 0.15% that doesn't account for large under-estimation of COVID-19 deaths in India, etc. So many ideologically-motivated contrarians peddle his nonsense. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1378479040877707268 … https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1376134278359171075 … https://twitter.com/ojwatson92/status/1385679540979109888 …pic.twitter.com/VpaiBVNE8c

        1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
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      22. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 2

        22/U There are many other problems with Ioannidis' paper (ex: under-estimating IFR, excess deaths aren't just based on comparisons to 1 prior year). But at a certain point, enough is enough. Enough of his distortions. Enough from those who peddle them. https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1422305032381231136 …pic.twitter.com/vOOYIQZ7wP

        3 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
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      23. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 4

        23/U Brazil is another interesting case study. Nationwide, their excess death totals matches their reported COVID-19 deaths, suggesting that overall they didn't under-estimate COVID-19 deaths much. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1422426349533343744 … https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v3.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/opurDus6vk

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      24. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 4

        24/U But Levin et al. implies IFR in Maranhão, Brazil should be ~2X larger than reported COVID-19 deaths imply. Ioannidis, in contrast, used that lower IFR. Consistent with Levin et al., excess deaths were higher in Maranhão. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1383857209717641216 … https://scielosp.org/article/rsp/2020.v54/131/ …pic.twitter.com/rNW7t7hIsj

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      25. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 4

        25/U And since Ioannidis' defenders are resorting to the their usual tactics + distortions on excess deaths in response to my thread: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1422771098874171393 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1422767981835309058 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1422782066169688068 …pic.twitter.com/wRYPegG1YO

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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      26. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 5

        26/U To re-iterate: Ioannidis, + proponents of his paper, are not being empirical; they choose his model-based motivated reasoning over observational evidence. Ioannidis accepts evidence, until it shows he's wrong (ex: 6/U, 7/U) https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1422987693747748867 … https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1370556153998888963 …pic.twitter.com/C55aRLm56n

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      27. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Aug 5

        27/U More of the same on India, but with a bit higher proportion of missed COVID-19 deaths and a correspondingly higher IFR for India. (reference 31 is @LeaMerone and @GidMK's paper from 5/U) https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1422421309439582209 … https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.641991/full …pic.twitter.com/M27Nkg9DCk

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      28. End of conversation

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