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AtomsksSanakan's profile
Atomsk's Sanakan
Atomsk's Sanakan
Atomsk's Sanakan
@AtomsksSanakan

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Atomsk's Sanakan

@AtomsksSanakan

Christian; Science, Denialism Debunked, Philosophy, Manga, Death Metal, Pokémon, Immunology FTW; Fan of Bradford Hill + Richard Joyce

USA
Joined June 2017

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    Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

    1/P Peter C Gøtzsche (@PGtzsche1) wrote the article below He argues that COVID-19 isn't very lethal, + then draws some political conclusions. The article is poor. "Is the infection fatality rate for COVID-19 worse than that for influenza?" https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4509/rr …pic.twitter.com/fwr1VmKU8X

    3:38 PM - 8 Dec 2020
    • 19 Retweets
    • 35 Likes
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    10 replies 19 retweets 35 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        2/P Gøtzsche's basic idea is: The proportion of SARS-CoV-2-infected people who die of the disease COVID-19 is comparable to that of flu; i.e. the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is not an order of magnitude larger than that of the flu. So: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4509/rr …pic.twitter.com/IYmQ7AK5yF

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      3. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        3/P Gøtzsche is wrong. Study after study shows that the fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is about an order of magnitude larger than that of influenza; COVID-19 is way more dangerous than the flu. So where does Gøtzsche go wrong? https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1299429571058696194 … https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …pic.twitter.com/vu0D7eJt4r

        2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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      4. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        4/P Gøtzsche cites a dubious meta-analysis from John Ioannidis, who under-estimates SARS-CoV-2's IFR. https://rapidreviewscovid19.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/p6tto8hl/release/1 … https://hildabastian.net/index.php/91  https://twitter.com/AVG_Joseph96/status/1283234509639618560 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1321081788517752832 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1272361132527955968 … https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1316511734115385344 … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAB43K2gtOk&lc=Ugz54UHHYTrdz_PgWT54AaABAg …pic.twitter.com/vr7dtsRfDM

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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      5. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        5/P Gøtzsche calls this, "a 2020 review by John Ioannidis, which is in press in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization." Interestingly, the World Health Organization does not agree with Gøtzsche. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1290693682602156046 … October 12: https://who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-virtual-press-conference-transcript---12-october-2020 …pic.twitter.com/AudS2o8UWN

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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      6. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        6/P Gøtzsche then cites his book to say the CDC may be unreliable on influenza's IFR. But the CDC doesn't give an influenza IFR. They give a case fatality rate (CFR), where reported cases are limited to symptomatic illnesses https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html … See:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAB43K2gtOk …

        2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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      7. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        7/P Influenza IFR can be calculated from the CFR, yielding an IFR of <0.1%. That extends beyond the CDC. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7289569/ … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1312367322837987328 … https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1251521082542211074 … https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1243466404415909889 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1322365905595179015 … https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1/MediaObjects/10654_2020_698_MOESM1_ESM.pdf …pic.twitter.com/axbOytMr9s

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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      8. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        8/P Gøtzsche goes on to compare *CFRs* from other pathogens to the *IFR* of SARS-CoV-2. That's misleading since IFR is less than, or equal to, CFR. In fact, IFR is almost always less than CFR, since CFR misses some infections. https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html …pic.twitter.com/CM4uthbRSM

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      9. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        9/P A good illustration of this is Gøtzsche comparing SARS-CoV-2's *IFR* to a 1% *CFR* for the 2009 pandemic flu. But the 2009 pandemic's *IFR* was around two or three orders of magnitude less https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1307562794770927617 … From @GidMK: https://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2 …pic.twitter.com/URY9PoLbrW

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      10. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        10/P Gøtzsche cites a blood donor research to claim a SARS-CoV-2 IFR of 0.16%. That's: - cherry-picking - using a type of study that under-estimates IFR for multiple reasons - citing a source that doesn't give an IFR - the research implies a larger IFR https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1321081788517752832 …pic.twitter.com/OfQId4ijSY

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      11. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        11/P Evidence also does not support Gøtzsche's claim that "draconian measures" (🙄; see part 2/P) in response to COVID-19 caused poverty, not COVID-19. For example, Sweden's less stringent response wasn't better in terms of GDP: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1325490855197683712 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1302850348822990848 …pic.twitter.com/uzC40hXbgN

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      12. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        12/P Gøtzsche's article is thus filled with false claims and distortions, leading to his politically-motivated conclusion. But how could he do this? He should have the biological knowledge to see his claims are wrong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_C._G%C3%B8tzsche …pic.twitter.com/bAw1Qz32oD

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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      13. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        13/P One plausible explanation is that Gøtzsche's ideological opposition to some policy responses to COVID-19, pushed him to contrarianism on COVID-19. His contrarian tendencies appeared before, just as with John Ioannidis: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1272672360416579589 … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_C._G%C3%B8tzsche …pic.twitter.com/rOVwaSZhpD

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      14. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        14/P So the COVID-19 pandemic brought out ideologically-motivated contrarianism and denialism, just like the AIDS pandemic, anthropogenic climate change, vaccination, GMOs, etc. did. How unfortunate. https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1259267627471507456 … https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/19/1/2/463780 …pic.twitter.com/Agi2oN7QVP

        2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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      15. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 8 Dec 2020

        15/P And below is a thread in which Gøtzsche's promotes the article I criticized: https://twitter.com/PGtzsche1/status/1334106917690544133 …pic.twitter.com/UkKZsIvWYd

        2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      16. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 9 Dec 2020

        16/P Others pointed out this contrarianism long before I did. An early example from one of my role models: https://twitter.com/gorskon/status/1242818039374131200 …pic.twitter.com/FMwZ4nMHO8

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      17. End of conversation

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