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AstorAaron's profile
Aaron Astor
Aaron Astor
Aaron Astor
@AstorAaron

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Aaron Astor

@AstorAaron

Historian of the 19th Century U.S. and Associate Prof. at Maryville College. Author of Rebels on the Border and Civil War along Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau

Maryville, TN
Joined June 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Apr 2021

      CNN article on how to safely fly claims that 90% vaccine efficacy means that🙄 for every million who fly, we could have 100,000 infections. NO NO NO. That’s not what that number means. Also, this didn’t even happen when millions flew unvaccinated. So how could it make sense now?pic.twitter.com/4MLW5oFw4f

      280 replies 2,027 retweets 12,576 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Aaron Astor‏ @AstorAaron 11 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      I guess 100,000 could get infected if the other 900,000 people on airplanes were actually infected and no ventilation system was in place...

      8 replies 7 retweets 278 likes
      Aaron Astor‏ @AstorAaron 11 Apr 2021
      Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

      Or maybe a better way to frame it is if one million people fly and covid viral particles are literally pumped into the aircraft cabin for the duration of a flight, 100,000 could become infected.

      5:39 AM - 11 Apr 2021
      • 21 Retweets
      • 602 Likes
      • Andrew! Ryan Mentley Qwan wat Susie Jeff Smith Jamie (((Dan Philip))) Athena Bubenik
      22 replies 21 retweets 602 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Aaron Astor‏ @AstorAaron 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

          The bigger logical error is a common one that assumes constant transmission rates. Just as there is an exponential effect of each person infecting more people when r(t)>1, the opposite occurs when sizable numbers are vaccinated and r(t)<1.

          3 replies 10 retweets 189 likes
        3. Aaron Astor‏ @AstorAaron 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

          You can see this in Israel, where ~30% of the population is under 16 and cannot be vaccinated. When the vax number of 16+ reached a certain point (around 42% of total population), fewer people were around to transmit. Thus, under 16s stopped transmitting too. Check March 8.pic.twitter.com/BBUsUUZScA

          5 replies 14 retweets 165 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Jordan Cool Lion‏ @Jordon_Carlton 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

          That's not what the efficacy is measuring either, it's just a percentage of vaccinated people that do not get the virus over a period of time compared to unvaccinated, in normal conditions, which is three months for these trials.

          3 replies 2 retweets 37 likes
        3. The fed up with antivaxxers K T McCormick  🌊‏ @KTMcCormick2 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @Jordon_Carlton @AstorAaron @zeynep

          Hence the need to continue masking up a bit longer.

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. MAB‏ @megbanana7 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

          This made me 😂 and almost spit my drink.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Robert David “Bob” Simms‏ @BobSimms1978 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @megbanana7 @AstorAaron @zeynep

          Me too, and then I thought I’d better not say so in the replies because “THIS IS NO LAUGHING MATTER!”

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Casey Sherman  🦆‏ @shermham 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

          CC: @1VeryChillDude do you think some people would experience that flight as a kink?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Max 🧂‏ @1VeryChillDude 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @shermham @AstorAaron @zeynep

          This would be ppl getting their flight bookedpic.twitter.com/XCtZJUV12J

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. 1 or 2 others‏ @l_I_I_I_I_I 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

          That's not it, either... Almost everyone would be infected in your scenario, though they'd probably clear the infection quickly

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Shades of Gray‏ @nuanceiskey 11 Apr 2021
          Replying to @AstorAaron @zeynep

          That's still not correct. Please try again.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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