I think my most contrarian belief is that not only are markets not efficient, they're deeply Girardian, filled with the most unbelievably stupid behavior copied and replicated almost everywhere.
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Absolutely more true in private markets than in public markets, but I'm amazed at how much exists there too. Also, most publicly traded companies are just horribly, abysmally run.
Doing consulting and seeing them from the inside opened my eyes to this, I didn't imagine it before I saw them from the inside.
