ArmenianBacon

@ArmenianBacon

Alleged college professor. Politics junkie. Lost $6000 in 2016 betting against Trump on PredictIt. Despite the rumors, many people like me.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2019.

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  1. prije 2 sata

    p.s. in all seriousness , trading was WAY better than expected last night, good job.

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  2. prije 2 sata

    The people most happy about this Iowa fiasco, in order: 1. . He performed awfully, and no one is talking about that. 2. , which no longer has the worst election day app

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  3. prije 16 sati

    Hey if they cancel the caucus due to these technical issues, do all contracts resolve N, or are you gonna rely on the FAQ Section 9 subsection 2.1 to give it to Bennet, based on the alphabetical thing?

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  4. prije 16 sati

    Everyone on Twitter is calling out for a for Iowa. There's no way Garrett would have ever allowed this!!!! Every state needs a Garrett!!!!!

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  5. prije 16 sati

    I had no idea the intern who made the Iowa Dem precinct reporting app also made the trading engine! Really makes you think......

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  6. prije 21 sat

    hey it's not like you're busy today or anything, so can we please get a market on this?

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  7. 2. velj

    Why is retweeting Mike Cernovich?

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  8. 2. velj

    Hey you hanging in there buddy?

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    I am deeply grateful for these endorsements, and I will fight to make sure that every LGBTQ+ person in America has the opportunity to thrive.

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  10. 1. velj

    3 days before the Iowa caucus, puts up a note about how awful its trading systems are in times of high volume. But it ignored many days of tweets and emails about what would happen if the NYT endorsed more than one Dem candidate. Rly mks u tink

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  11. 31. sij

    What's the best adjective to describe the Senate trial?

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  12. 29. sij

    I apologize to my followers for going on a tear trying to inform people about how weighting works in polls. I have this fantasy that, if I just work hard enough, people will stop posting raw sample stats and claim the sample is unrepresentative.

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Democrats: I don’t support Bernie’s specific healthcare plan. 🌹: FUCKING NEOLIB BOOTLICKER FACIST SHILL! ! Joe Rogan: Trans people aren’t real, white genocide is real, I like to call gay people f*gs, and women suck. 🌹: Big Tent!

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  14. 24. sij

    PI doesn’t have that. So they create contracts to entice such people in and the Corgis of the world go off and publicize them on message boards and Twitter, trying to attract dumb money. Of course both Vegas and PI also attract a healthy share of gambling addicts. The exact same

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  15. 24. sij

    The more I think about it the more apt the comparison of to the Vegas poker scene is. The difference of course is Vegas pros who scrape 40 or 50k a year off stupid tourists have a steady stream of tourists come in who watched Rounders or Chris Moneymaker.

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  16. 24. sij

    .... as an economist, it's totally predictable given the incentives and complete lack of control around deception. As I've said, it's really no different than the ham-and-egg professional poker players in Vegas that scrape out a living beating dumb tourists at poker. Oh well.

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  17. 24. sij

    other websites (e.g., Breitbart) trying to lure "dumb money" to the platform. They then use message boards to pose as confederate conspiracy believers to get people to deposit and make bad bets. One part of the site I've never liked, at all, but as Rajiv would tell you.....

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  18. 24. sij

    describes goes on all the time. Traders beg PredictIt to add contracts that will appeal to the conspiracy minded -- examples are the constant drumbeats for new markets on the indictments of Hillary and Comey, to bring in Q-Anon believers, and some traders even post here and....

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  19. 24. sij

    This comment on the message boards reminded me of a conversation I was having with about the zero-sum nature of PredictIt and the resulting incentives that lead to some of the seedier elements of the site. Corgi was joking, but he knows that what he...

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  20. 23. sij

    .... seems to update his delegate numbers every week or so based on state-level predictions. I admit I haven’t looked that closely but I do see people tweeting about their estimates. I can track down if you’re interested but I suspect you already know of these.

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