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2. Our main argument: In large part because of U.S. policy shifts, "there are low expectations for the November summit," including on trade. Worryingly, "there is another victim of American obstructionism at the G-20: the global climate change agenda." #g20 @g20org #Argentina
3. Absent U.S. resistance, #Argentina "had been expected to preserve climate change as a big ticket item" at the #G20. After all, "Macri’s government has a well-earned reputation as a climate leader."
4. But #Argentina wants to preserve consensus at the #G20, and "it is hesitant to pick a fight with America, given the unpredictable Trump administration and a range of high-stakes, bilateral trade disputes."
5. That said, pleasing the U.S. on climate could frustrate #Argentina's other allies, including #France, #Germany, #GreatBritain, #Italy and #China, which "may not accept anything short of full-throated support for the [Paris] agreement in the summit’s official communiqué." #G20
6. Meanwhile, though "it is easy to sympathize with Macri, caught between climate deniers in the White House and an international community pushing for greater action on climate change," given "the peril the planet faces" from climate change," #Argentina's leadership is vital.
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