Argentina Project

But Mercosur obits seemed premature. In Brazil, unlike in Argentina, the globally competitive farm sector is more powerful than the protectionist industrialists. Still, Brazil is one of the world's most closed economies, and Argentina is hardly Paulo Guedes's only obstacle. 4/

Moreover, the influential military figures in Bolsonaro's government recognize the value of Mercosur as a foreign policy anchor, and show little nostalgia for the era of nuclear competition and battles for influence in South America. 5/

Meanwhile, powerful EU members, including France, are reluctant to approve the Mercosur pact, unwilling to compete against South American farm products and disdainful of Bolsonaro's environmental record. Argentina-Brazil tensions over the deal seemed beside the point. 6/

Moreover, given Argentina's economic turmoil, its new government did not seem eager to jeopardize relations with its top trading partner. The two presidents haven't met, but Argentina appointed former Vice President Daniel Scioli as ambassador to Brazil. 7/

As it turns out, for now at least, Buenos Aires is not disavowing the agreement. But by eschewing talks with South Korea, Singapore, Canada and India, Fernández risks opening a chasm between Argentina and pro-trade Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. 9/ https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/25/world/americas/25reuters-argentina-mercosur.html?smid=tw-share …

To recover from its Covid-19 crisis, Argentina will need to grow exports. In the long term, an economic opening would deliver a desperately needed boost in competitiveness, through technology transfer, exposure to best practices, higher foreign investment and lower prices. 11/