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#Argentina "needs significant debt relief," @FitchRatings says in a new report, but a debt restructuring could prove "challenging," with a possibility of "a protracted process or outright default." https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10112352 … 1/
Without debt relief, @FitchRatings calculates Argentina would need to generate a 3% of GDP surplus, "but political and economic headwinds make this unrealistic." Indeed, Finance Minister Martín Guzmán does not expect any surplus until 2023. 2/
Argentina is in particular trouble because of its "low debt tolerance," according to @FitchRatings, which says the country's "poor repayment record" reflects its heavy borrowing in dollars and limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. 3/
Meanwhile, dramatic budget cuts are not in Argentina's long-term interest, @FitchRatings concludes, as tax increases and reductions in infrastructure spending "could exacerbate deep competitiveness challenges." 4/
In any event, President Alberto Fernández has ruled out austerity, insisting in his 1st state of the union he would never "pagar la deuda a costa del hambre." 5/
For more on Argentina's debt challenges, stay tuned for our upcoming podcast interview with Todd Martinez, @FitchRatings's lead Argentina analyst, and subscribe to @LATAMProg's free digital newsletter. https://engage.wilsoncenter.org/onlineactions/YQcpNdU-sU-dusDkAOYDtw2 …. 6/
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