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What says the WEO? China’s Q1 GDP was stronger than expected, but Q2 doesn’t look promising. Global trade growth is slowing. In Latin America, closely tied to China, “activity has disappointed,” with annual growth estimated at 0.6%. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019?cid=em-COM-123-39218 … @IMFNews 1/
#Argentina is not helping lift the region: “The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down slightly compared with the April WEO, and the recovery in 2020 is now projected to be more modest.” 2/
As ever, #Argentina remains vulnerable to external shocks, and @IMFNews highlights a scary scenario, “a rapid deterioration in global risk appetite” provoked by U.S.-#China tensions, #Turkey financial troubles or other developments. 3/
For now, thanks to continued @IMFNews support, #Argentina could weather a “risk-off episode,” but it would put enormous pressure on the peso, undermine disinflation progress and keep interest rates crushingly high. 4/
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