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The outlook for #Argentina remains "relatively grim," @FrontierStrtGrp's @schobetrotter writes in a new report, but the "disorganized opposition" gives President @mauriciomacri a shot a reelection. 1/
A 2nd term for President Mauricio Macri would be welcome by businesses. But in the meantime, @FrontierStrtGrp projects a rocky year, with high peso volatility; public spending cuts; a 1.1% GDP contraction; and tax hikes to make up for falling government revenue. 2/
And that's hardly the worst-case scenario. @FrontierStrtGrp analyst @schobetrotter warns that persistently high inflation would lower real wages; reduce consumer spending; erode public support for the government; and keep interest rates stiflingly high. 3/
That said, the @FrontierStrtGrp report projects growth in the final two quarters of the year, which would provide pre-election optimistic headlines and could help keep Cambiemos in the Casa Rosada. 4/
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