Poll numbers for Roberto Lavagna, Eduardo Duhalde’s finance minister, are impressive, but observers say it’s no mystery why he hasn’t yet launched a presidential bid. 1/
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The case against a Lavagna black swan election? (a) His success was based at least in part on a post-crisis dead cat bounce; (b) He’s a mediocre campaigner, who preformed poorly as the Radical presidential candidate in 2007, coming in 3rd, with only 17% of the vote 2/
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And, (c) He’s been out of sight for a long time, and his popularity would fall if he entered the race, whether or not he avoids a primary fight against moderate Peronists, such as Sergio Massa and Juan Manuel Urtubey 3/
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None of that means Lavagna is not a threat to President Mauricio Macri, given the president’s weakness on economic issues. But Lavagna’s surprising popularity might not change the election’s dynamics much at all. 4/
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