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Thanks to the controversial pension reform in late 2017 and the peso crisis last year, President Macri's approval rating has fallen from 53% to 30% in the @SynopsisConsult survey. 3/
As for former President Fernández de Kirchner, her support is unlikely to fall before October, regardless of worsening legal entanglements, @SynopsisConsult writes. That means economic troubles could plausibly produce a 2nd round featuring @CFKArgentina + a moderate Peronist. 4/
What moderate Peronist would in a first round get more than Macri’s 30 pct base such that we would see a runoff between CFK and some other Peronist?
One that could capitalize on the disenchantment of Macri voters by the economic situation. Lavagna Is better positioned for it. But it depends on the economic crisis being deepened. If Macri gets the economy to recover, its voters will stand and it will be him in front of CFK.
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