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But there are risks, such as a pre-election peso sell-off in #Argentina, even amid high interest rates, @Citi writes: "If the probability of a regime change is high, then the necessary rates may be astronomically high." 3/
Yet @Citi analysts appear fairly confident in President Mauricio Macri's reelection, given @CFKArgentina's failure "to capitalize on the weak economic situation." #Argentina 4/
Happily for @mauriciomacri, @Citi notes a gap between consumer confidence and the closely watched Trust in the Government Index, suggesting "it's the economy, stupid" might not hold here. Indeed, as we wrote in @AmerQuarterly, security is a top concern. https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/what-recession-argentinas-tough-crime-minister-changes-pre-election-debate … 5/
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