Analysts at @Citi project 0% GDP growth this year in #Argentina, and 30% inflation, both significant improvements over 2018, though nothing to write home about. 2/
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For #Argentina's economy "the worst is likely behind us," @Citi writes in a new report, citing preliminary GDP data for December and rising imports. But the recovery will be slowed by contractionary monetary and fiscal policy and anxiety over the October election. 1/
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But there are risks, such as a pre-election peso sell-off in
#Argentina, even amid high interest rates,@Citi writes: "If the probability of a regime change is high, then the necessary rates may be astronomically high." 3/Show this thread -
Yet
@Citi analysts appear fairly confident in President Mauricio Macri's reelection, given@CFKArgentina's failure "to capitalize on the weak economic situation."#Argentina 4/Show this thread -
Happily for
@mauriciomacri,@Citi notes a gap between consumer confidence and the closely watched Trust in the Government Index, suggesting "it's the economy, stupid" might not hold here. Indeed, as we wrote in@AmerQuarterly, security is a top concern. https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/what-recession-argentinas-tough-crime-minister-changes-pre-election-debate … 5/Show this thread
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